The Obvious and The Obscure $SPY $QQQ $IWM

October 23, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

A couple of interesting potential developments to consider in spite of the huge down day. First, is my close friend Semiconductors. Yes, we go way back as a rally cannot sustain without them, I believe. And conversely, a selloff should have trouble sustaining if they run. Now, granted, run is a relative term considering how beat up they have been from when they peaked in March this year. But, today's action is, at the very least, worth noting. Next, my other friend Russell 2000. It touched down on the 200 DMA and closed at the top of its intraday range. Again, needs confirmation, but at least worth noting. Finally, there is GOOG, which after the huge post earnings selloff, remained green all day. Again, a one day wonder is possible. However, one must look at the obvious and the obscure.

S&P 500 (SPY) 140.15 support, 141.75 pivotal and over 142.05 interesting.

Dow (DIA) 129.63 support and 129.50 the 200 DMA. With accelerated warning phase, defensive mode

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 65.04 the 200 DMA. A close over 65.95 will breathe new life.

ETFs:

GLD So much for a bottom. 163.50 is a weekly support area to watch

XLF (Financials) At this point, the odds favor a double top-or at the very least, trip to the 50 DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) Interesting that this is still in just a weak warning phase. After a good correction, getting my interest again

SMH (Semiconductors) 31.65 is the real point to clear, but with Tuesday's move, love to see a test of that area

IYT (Transportation) Back in unconfirmed recovery phase.

IYR (Real Estate) 3 lows around 63.40 makes this compelling if holds there

USO (US Oil Fund) Really oversold. Best case would be an island bottom if gaps higher. Otherwise, leave it alone

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 63.13 number to defend.

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