April 21, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The week went out with a limp over the 50 DMA in S&P 500, holding it in the Dow (after an abysmal day for IBM), NASDAQ pushed up against the 50 DMA and IWM (Russell 2000) held the February lows, recapturing some of its losses but still fairly far from the 50 DMA. Two indexes remain in warning, two in bullish with neutral market internals. Mixed bag-not nearly the onslaught last Monday’s performance suggested would occur, but a definite deterioration from the highs, suggesting that without more work, perhaps a top is in place for a while longer.
S&P 500 (SPY) Friday’s range lacked volume, even with the return to an unconfirmed bullish phase. The daily chart has some overhead hurdles starting with the fast moving average. The 50 DMA and Friday’s low, an important point to hold
Russell 2000 (IWM) After all the damage, it held 88.79 the last swing low from February 26th. That is the place to hold now with 92.00 major overhead resistance.
Dow (DIA) 145 down to the 50 DMA key support to hold.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Interesting inside day wedged between the channel low and the 50 DMA-AAPL earnings should have an impact early next week
ETFs:
GLD Classic white cap trade setting up. New lows, 4 tries to pop, then if it gets a failure, expect a new leg down. That’s what I will be watching for.
XLF (Financials) Crept back above the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed bull phase. To be fully convinced, would want to see this clear 18.30. Otherwise, 17.75 is key support to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) A gift on Friday thanks to VRTX. This sector has been amazing!!
SMH (Semiconductors) 35.13 a place to clear with good support all the way down. In other words, bullish and still bullish for this group.
XRT (Retail) Inside day over the 50 DMA-worth watching!!
IYT (Transportation) 107.80 has to clear, but Friday’s action illustrates that this could continue to shine in the coming months, years.
IYR (Real Estate) This was the one to watch on Friday and buy as it cleared the Thursday high after an inside day and closed really well.
USO (US Oil Fund) Glass bottom in play as long as recent lows hold with an inside day Friday
OIH (Oil Services) Tried to push through but failed the 200 DMA
XLE (Energy) Unclear about whether this will hold the 200 DMA or not. Over Friday’s high encouraging but under 73.50, trouble.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 59.50 huge support to hold with Friday’s high, after 2 inside days awesome if clears.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Head fake into that run above the 200 DMA-still watching for it though.
XHB (Homebuilders) Good bounce off of the 28.00 support level after looking like it would fail there. Could be back as a contender
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.60 is the weekly moving average
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