June 17, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Welcome to pre-Federal Reserve Meeting Week! Monday’s action begins exhibiting characteristics of a split personality. On the one hand there’s the gap higher over fast moving averages with the Dow closing up 109 which suggests that Ben and the boys/girls will keep the spigot on. On the other hand, there are the long bonds, which got hit hard readying us for the possibility of higher rates. The price point on the daily charts of all 4 indexes are pretty much smack dab in the middle of the May 22nd high and June 6th low. Volume was not startling nor is the relative strength indicator neither overbought nor oversold. I suspect this up and down action will continue until something definitive (or definitively not definitive) emerges.
S&P 500 (SPY) 165.40 area to clear and under 162.91, the 50 DMA will not stop a decline should it get a 4th visit
Russell 2000 (IWM) 98.80 number to clear. Has room to the downside without looking too horrible for now
Dow (DIA) 152.88 number to clear and should 150.39 break, like SPY, the 50 DMA won’t mean too much
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) To break the lower highs since the peak high May6 22nd, this has to at least clear 73.76
ETFs:
GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support-with sentiment still bearish unless it gets back over the 50 DMA.
XLF (Financials) 19.83 (not a bad year for disco fans), is now the high last 3 days. Should mean something if clears it
IBB (Biotechnology) Unconfirmed warning phase-first time since December 2012
SMH (Semiconductors) Still love this group-first place I’d go if the market can find its way.
XRT (Retail) Inside day on the 10 DMA-interesting spot
IYT (Transportation) 111.50 needs to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and really important to the whole deal.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.60 should be pivotal for now
OIH (Oil Services) Back to unconfirmed bullish and into some resistance
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Holding long term support but has some resistance to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Very oversold
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