August 13, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I refuse to be lulled into complacency, but this is starting to feel familiar. The past seven trading days have seen the indexes open the day by testing/searching for support. After the support has been tested, the indexes then began their grind higher. However, today was a little different (and I won’t necessarily expect the same tomorrow). Instead of grinding higher the indexes sprung higher. Still, even with the vigorous action, three of the four indexes closed under the 10 DMA. Nasdaq (QQQ) was the only index that closed above the 10 DMA, and did so with authority! Nasdaq was given a boost by AAPL’s impressive performance, which was performing well beginning with it’s opening range reversal (which is where we got in). AAPL really began to fly when Carl Icahn tweeted that he had a large position in AAPL and said that he believed it was undervalued. Behold the power of social media! The main thing to keep in mind is that the indexes have been consolidating for the last four to five days. Watch for the recent highs to clear and for the indexes to hold the 10 DMA and recent lows. TBT closed on yearly highs.
S&P 500 (SPY) Tested and held the prior day low. Climbed back but closed just shy of the 10 DMA.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Took out yesterday’s high but closed under the 10 DMA.
Dow (DIA) Held recent lows and had a doji day
Nasdaq (QQQ) Looking very strong (with AAPL’s help!). Highest close in 13 years!
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Expect a visit to the 50 DMA if today’s low is broken. Recently over the 80 monthly.
SMH (Semiconductors) This was starting to look dicey but, climbed over the 10 DMA. Now in an unconfirmed bull phase.
XRT (Retail) Closed over the channel that we have been mentioning. Now over the 10 DMA.
IYT (Transportation) Expect a visit to the 50 DMA if today’s low is broken.
IBB (Biotechnology) 190.90 is an important area to hold. It should find support there.
IYR (Real Estate) Watch for 64.00 to hold. If that breaks, this could test the June lows.
XHB (Homebuilders) Choppy sideways action. Holding support and under resistance.
GLDConfirmed the recovery phase. May test support at the 50 DMA.
USO (US Oil Fund)Grinding higher. 38.12 is the next hurdle.
OIH (Oil Services)Nice move from the inside day. 45.94 is the next hurdle.
XLE (Energy) Sideways and choppy under the 10 DMA.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Gapped higher and spent the day consolidating near the gap level. Highest close of 2013.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Gapped up again, this time over the 10 DMA. An island bottom is in place.
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