August 29, 2019
By Mish Schneider
“I wish I could say it was that easy-that the SPY is not only doing better than it did in early August, but that it has bottomed since then as well.
However, there are two distinct possibilities looking at both the daily and weekly charts.
First is that we have bottomed above 280 based on the 200-Daily moving average and the August 5th low of 281.72.
The other possibility is that the support SPY has found at these levels is merely enough for the chart to complete a somewhat lopsided right shoulder of a head and shoulders top.”
I went on to write, “What would make this rally go the way of the extinct dinosaur?
It will begin with a weekly close under 280. However, until we see a death cross on the daily chart and then a break of the 200-WMA, we are still calling this a correction.”
To date, the correction scenario is accurate. The market did indeed bounce from 280 in SPY and, the lopsided right shoulder of the potential head and shoulders top remains intact.
In other words, SPY bounced, but only in its existing wide trading range.
Please see levels.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 148.00 now key support to hold for this to stay firm. But nothing terribly exciting happens for the bulls unless it clears 152-153.
Dow (DIA) 260 now key support with 266 the 50 DMA to close and hold above
Nasdaq (QQQ) 2 inside weeks., which is significant because it proves the range theory. This must clear 189.50 and close above to continue north and hold 181.50 to avoid going further south.
KRE (Regional Banks) A low volume reversal is not as powerful as one with big volume. Must hold 49.50 to stay in the game.
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed bullish phase not surprising considering this has been the strongest sector. It must close again over 113.05 to stay bullish.
IYT (Transportation) This did have an accumulation day of volume on Wednesday. That makes for a legitimate reversal bottom. So now it must hold 179.50. Then clear 186. I’d keep big eyes here as this sector is the key to evaluate the market’s next direction.
IBB (Biotechnology) the 200 WMA at 102.71 pivotal. A weekly close above would engender confidence in the upside.
XRT (Retail) Possibility this has multiple bottoms around 38 and could run higher from here. It must hold 39.50, and then clear 41.50
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: