June 2, 2018
By Mish Schneider
You know the story.
A young boy with questionable intelligence and a kind heart, is gifted a goose that lays golden eggs because of his kindness to a dwarf.
His 2 other brothers (allegedly smarter, yet clearly not kinder), had denied the dwarf food.
“What I give to you I lose myself—be off with you,”.
Karma caught up with them in the way of injuries.
Hence, the simpleton brother, after begging his parents to go to the woods, is given tainted beer and ash-laden cake as they believed he needed to learn a lesson.
The market, after wild swings last week, was handed a golden goose.
Initially, investors questioned the market’s ability to sustain a rally.
Trade tariffs were interpreted as unkind as the Simpleton’s brothers.
Yet, with the lowest unemployment numbers in five decades, and a year-to-year wage increase of 2.7%, the economy’s act of kindness rewarded the true-believers.
Furthermore, the on and off again proposed meeting with North Korea is on again.
The Simpleton shared his tarnished refreshments and got gold for doing so.
Will the market continue to ride this goose ‘til it turns to down?
Technically, we see many positives.
For starters, the Russell 2000 (IWM), perhaps the dad in our market fable, loves his bulls, but wants to see his simplest one work harder.
With 3 tries at 164.38 last week, we’d like to see a gap above that level with follow through this Monday.
Otherwise, after TWO inside days, we could see an open around 163.50-164.38 and then a breakout above that inside day trading range.
However, should we see a lower open and a breakdown below 162.34, that goose could be cooked.
Important as well, is the stubborn trading range in the S&P 500. With everyone watching these levels, how that range reconciles and for how long will matter.
Our other go-to, Transportation (IYT), cleared the pivotal 195 level.
If the wage increase comes home to roost, then we should start to see goods moving, therefore, IYT moving higher. That makes 195 super important as a support level to hold.
As NASDAQ played a huge hand in the market’s strength, the goose had better take QQQs to its all-time high at 175.21.
As one looking for fresh golden eggs, last week I covered value versus growth stocks.
VTV or the Vanguard Value ETF, confirmed the bullish phase on the Daily chart.
Growth (VUG or the Vanguard Growth ETF), still outperforms.
Nevertheless, while value stocks are like Simpletons compared to growth stocks, it could turn out like the dwarf that gives the Simpleton a golden goose.
At the end of the Golden Goose fable, the simpleton wins the hand of the king’s daughter and ultimately inherits the entire kingdom.
Remember that should the overcrowded growth stocks, laden with greedy bulls, begins to underperform value.
S&P 500 (SPY) 270 to 274 range
Russell 2000 (IWM) 2 Inside days! Over 164.38-looks good to potential 168. Under 160 trouble
Dow (DIA) 245 pivotal-support. 250 biggest resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) I hope you bought the next dip after it filled the gap to 170.92-if so, should hold 170 with room if the market holds up
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