Time To Ring the Fed Register

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Prepared by Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge, filling in for Mish for Until December 13th.

Hi Link

Wednesday the Fed is expected to announce its replacement plan for the soon ending Operation Twist. Today's run up suggested the market is getting more confident in a rally in the face of the Fiscal Cliff and without worry that the Fed will announce anything to detrimental to the markets.

While the news may not be bad, the SPY and the DIA have had a nice run and the 50 DMA is still negative. Beware of profit taking.

S&P 500 (SPY) Broke out and followed through nicely.142.92 should be support now. Today's high tapped the trend line from the September highs. Subs: Positive Pivots

Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke above its consolidation high. 82.75 is the key support level now. Subs: Pivots Positive

Dow (DIA) Continued higher and found resistance at 133.12 as you should have expected. Unless there is a news catalyst it could be a good time for a rest against the 133 area. Subs: Pivots Positive

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Three ticks shy of breaking its daily consolidation and it had some help from AAPL. Must hold today's lows. Subs: Pivots Positive

ETFs:
GLD Holding anticipated support in the 165 area.

SLV Holding anticipated support in the 31.80 - 31.60 area.

XLF (Financials) Key levels are 16.20 on the upside and 15.92 on the downside.

IBB (Biotechnology) Nice volume follow through from Monday's reversal. Support should come in at 140.40. Watch out for 143.60 on the upside.

SMH (Semiconductors) Closed above resistance line from the 2012 highs and the 200 DMA. Explosive moves in its biggest components - TXN and INTC. 33.30 area could be significant resistance

XRT (Retail) A struggling transition into a bullish phase. Has potential to go either way.

IYT (Transportation) Moved up, but closed near the LOD. If it can consolidate over the 200 DMA then I'll change my disinterested stance, but until then I maintain that buying strength at the top of a daily range in this index has been the wrong thing to do all year. Below 92 this is a good short candidate in a weak market.

IYR (Real Estate) Didn't make much progress and closed near the LOD. Very light volume. Look for 64.90 on the upside with support at 64.15.

XLI (Industrial Spdr Fund) 37.40 should be good support, and resistance is 38.07.

OIH (Oil Services) Will last week's death cross prevent a breakout over the 200 DMA and daily consolidation high of 39.28? It tried to break out today but only reached 39.34 on big volume. The daily if very compressed. It could go either way big. Under 38.50 it is very vulnerable.

XLE (Energy) Subs: Closed over the 50 DMA and daily consolidation but consolidated all day. Must hold 71.60, next support is in the 70.40 area.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Moved up to the top of a 3 week range. Very subject to the Fed meeting.

Best wishes for your trading,

Geoff Bysshe
President

Filling in for...

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