March 18, 2024
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Consumer instinct is a wonderful attribute to have and generally talked about on companies’ stocks to buy.
What Is the “Consumer Instinct”? (From Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth)
“Peter Lynch is one of the most famous investors in the world. A former manager of the Magellan Fund at Fidelity, he averaged a whopping 29.2 percent annual return in his day. Lynch’s number-one philosophy on investing is only buy what you understand.
He states, “If you stay half-alert, you can pick the spectacular performers right from your place of business or out of the neighborhood shopping mall, and long before Wall Street discovers them.”
Our research tools are our eyes, ears, and common sense. Lynch believed that we all can see emerging trends when we watch TV, read the newspaper, or listen to the radio.
Today, I am using that consumer instinct not on what I want to buy, but rather, what company has greatly disappointed me lately.
Netflix (NFLX).
Fundamentally, there are some concerns.
Their earnings and subscriber growth have been spectacular. But can that sustain with all the competition?
The stock’s price has risen from the trough in 2022 at $164 to today’s peak at $627.
Personally, I am finding less and less quality content to watch.
I often think that AI is writing the same scripts over and over again.
I spend a lot of time surfing through the shows-and I am disappointed.
So, given that it is possible Netflix could be topping out, what would we look for?
On the Daily chart, NFLX is consolidating.
Netflix is outperforming SPY.
On Real Motion though, the momentum is declining.
Should NFLX underperform SPY or break the 50-DMA in momentum. Those are 2 clear signs.
On the monthly chart, NFLX has rallied to the last high in 2022 before the big crash happened.
Now with FOMC, yields rising, consumers starting to feel the pitch of inflation and high rates, we could see this stock as one of the first primo runners begin to sell off.
Should NFLX fail to breach 620 and run up higher OR should the stock begin to break 602-600, that is a low-risk opportunity to buy some protection.
CHECK OUT Real Vision YOUTUBE for today’s Daily Briefing with Mish and Maggie Lake!
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Mish in the Media - All clips here
Financial Sense Jim Pupluva Mish and Jim talk about the signs of inflation and recession-both are still on the table 03-15-24
Money Show with Mike Larson Listen as Mish’s predictions all come true from February in Las Vegas 03-14-24
Business First AM Identifying Warning Signs and why Alibaba 03-13-24
StockchartsTV Your Daily Five 5 Top Stock Picks + 2 With Great Potential-Mish keeps on the theme of leaders continue to lead 03-12-24
Benzinga Pre Market Prep Market thoughts and why Mish likes certain key instruments that could be the next big winners 03-08-24
Synergy Traders-How to Identify the Next Magnificent Leaders-A webinar-want to know more why outperformers outperform and how to profit on that? This is a webinar 03-06-24
Real Vision 3 Trades Holden and Mish talk Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Coinbase with actionable information. 03-01-24
Coming Up:
March 19 CNA Singapore Asia First
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, and new to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 510 pivotal
Russell 2000 (IWM) 202 if holds good sign
Dow (DIA) 385 support 400 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 428 the 50-DMA support
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) 214 support 224 resistance to clear
Transportation (IYT) 68 area support
Biotechnology (IBB) 140-142 resistance 135 support
Retail (XRT) 73 support 77 resistance
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 77 big number to hold. Over 78 risk ON
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