Time to Watch Volatility?

September 29, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Last week I wrote a Daily speculating on whether Granddad Russell 2000 IWM had put in a technical pattern called triple tops, or if IWM will clear the highs of 2021, 2024 and now 2025 and keep screaming higher.

And, if we look at the lows of the last 3 weeks, in sequence the prices are

235.42, 236.75, and this week 237.55. So far.

I will get more concerned if we close this week under 237.55 as that breaks the pattern of consistent higher lows.

With gold continuing to soar (please have a listen to the latest media clips where I talk to CNBC Squawk Box and Pre-Market Prep) we know something could be bubbling under the surface.

However, we will continue to watch last week’s lows and remain bullish until the point that that price fails.

In the meantime, we have another interesting concern.

Volatility.

The volatility index represents expected 30-day volatility derived from S&P 500 index options.

It is often called the “fear gauge” because it rises when markets are stressed and investors seek downside protection.

VIX does not track historical volatility but instead anticipates how volatile the market will be in the near future.

On the chart, note that with the market making all-time highs, volatility bottomed out on September 18th.

The low that day was 32.64.

Monday’s low was 32.68 before the bounce and the closing price with a gain of 5%.

While “fear” still underperforms the SPY, the momentum to the upside is also gaining traction.

VXX is far from the 50-DMA and the July 6-month calendar range low.

Nonetheless, if we combine gold on new highs, the Russell’s that can easily fail last week’s lows and volatility illustrating some anticipation that volatility will pick up, you all have enough to watch this week.

We advise you to have stops in place in case.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice. 

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