July 5, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
A DOJI day in SPY with light volume. Now, 133.78 where the open and close is becomes pivotal. It also had an inside day which means above 134.10 see no reason why the move should not resume to the upside. However, considering the DOJI and inside day, if it breaks beneath today's low 133.39 we could also see the correction down to the 50 day moving average.
QQQ did not quite make it to 58.36 the resistance from the beginning of June. It also had light volume. If it cannot get through 58.36, beneath today's low 57.83 and will look like a strong possibility of a retracement down to the 50 day moving average.
IWM had an inside day also on light volume. Friday's hi was 84.23 now the next number to penetrate before going to its resistance from the beginning of June at 84.86. Or, beneath today's low 84.04 next support at 82.30 area with the adaptive moving average at 82.46.
All of the indexes are still in overbought territory on the short-term RSI indicator. However, they are all still in a bullish phase which means that dips are buy opportunities.
Featured ETFS:
SMH still a wild card although the weekly chart in an uptrend. After stopping at the 50 day moving average on Friday, today it opened right near Friday's hi and proceeded to sell off. Interesting is that the low held the exponential moving average. Tomorrow above 34.53 and this time, it might get the momentum to get through the 50 day moving average. Next overhead resistance at 35.25. However, if it breaks today's low at support at 33.50 the top of the congestion from last week.
SLV with a gap higher today, followed to the upside with an entry at 34.15 taking some profit at 34.57 and taking home the rest. At this point, today's activity could merely have been a retracement to a trendline breakdown from the lows that were made back in mid-May. Therefore, now want to see it break above today's high 34.78. Although it held recent lows, still has a sharply declining 50 day moving average overhead keeping this in a strong warning phase.
GLD unlike silver, this is in a weak warning phase as the 50 day moving average is still pointing up. Now, if it can get back above the 50 day moving average, anticipate it going to fill the gap that was left back on June 22.
FXE actually had a correction today by dropping down to the 50 day moving average and bouncing back. Still has to clear 144.86 to fill a gap that was left up to 145.07.
FXI Now, if it breaks beneath today's low still set up for a short with underlying support down at the 200 weekly moving average.
XLF had an inside day today closing beneath the 50 day moving average and the right beneath the 50 weekly moving average. Now, unless it gets back above 15.51 area, a break below today's low 15.42 and next support comes in at 15.20 the top of the consolidation for several weeks.
Although nobody can argue with the stronger sectors and groups that have led this market such as biotechnology, retail and real estate, no party is complete without semiconductors and financials in the house. Note: XRT has to take out 54.72 for new highs.
Got subscribers long CRM near the lows and great follow-through with the existing longs in AAPL, AMZN, WYNN.
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