April 2, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
This is my last Daily until next week as I am off to the Money Show in Dallas.
Thus, I want to leave you with some food for thought with charts on the menu.
This week, I wrote about the importance of XRT Retail and SMH Semiconductors.
These monthly charts will guide you on equities.
Now, I want to cover my trifecta of inflation, beginning with the gold to silver ratio.
The ratio chart favors gold. 92.28 times greater price than silver shows no inflation.
What it does show is that gold is still a flight to safety investment.
It is historically high which means silver has room to catch up. And it must if we are to think more inflation is on the way, or stagflation. And not recession.
Should the ratio break down under 87, that could be a sign for more inflation pain and a great trade for silver.
Next is the dollar. A precipitous decline would be noteworthy, and most likely spur silver.
To date, the dollar is weak, but not critical.
Under 103, that could be the start of a bigger move down.
And while we still consider oil an X factor, you should watch that too. Over $80 that would also be disruptive and inflationary.
However, the 3rd in my trifecta is sugar futures.
Sugar is our 3rd inflation indicator as it is a global food staple.
It is tied to oil as well. But its true nature comes out when sugar is in shortage during stressful economic times.
It measures both social and political distress. Folks will fight over the last pound of sugar in a supermarket. They do not do that with eggs.
It also measures the balance between supply and demand.
Looking at the chart, sugar through 20 cents a pound is notable.
After Covid sugar peaked at 28 cents a pound. That is the number to watch.
Looking at the trifecta, we have potential to see much higher inflation, but right now, it is mixed with no major concerns at this time.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Outlook 2025, the PDF This will set you up on the right side of the market along with many picks
Real Vision with Ash Bennington Subscribers only 04-02-25
David Keller Market Misbehavior Mish Schneider on Macro Themes, Silver Versus Gold, and the Economic Modern Family 04-01-25
Podcast Geoff and Mish cover the importance of the monthly chart timeframe 03-31-25
Business First AM Sage advice on how to trade this tumultuous market 03-31-25
Business First AM Watching ELF Beauty 03-30-25
Business First AM Tips on dealing with a market sell-off 3-27-25
CNBC Asia Clip from Mish’s extensive interview on current and future market conditions 03-25-25
Coming Up:
April 4 The Money Show in Dallas
April 4 Live with Charles Payne on Fox from the Money Show
April 10 BFM radio Maylasia
April 11 BNN Bloomberg
Weekly: Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) Made a new yearly low and bounced-real? 575 still sits overhead
Russell 2000 (IWM) 200 pivotal
Dow (DIA) 417 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 480 next to clear
Regional banks (KRE) 55-60 the trading range to watch
Semiconductors (SMH) 205 monthly support held
Transportation (IYT) 63 support 67 resistance
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 has to clear
Retail (XRT) 70 pivotal 72 resistance
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
