November 20, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
All in all good consolidation. S&P 500 performed best closing over last week's high in the final moments. Nice to see a confirmed change to a strong warning phase which means, back over the 200 DMA, well below the 50 DMA which in its declining slope indicates not all is necessarily rosy yet. Of course, anything can happen; but for now, consider the 200 DMA a pertinent line in the sand.
S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume and anticipate the same tomorrow. Will be looking for it to pull away from the 200 DMA with fervor or fizzle out and go back to its decline.
Russell 2000 (IWM) The only index that did not break support intraday which turned out to be a clue for the firm finish.
Dow (DIA) Cleared the fast moving average. Last week high remains resistance and 126.50 is important gap low to hold
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held the 10 DMA and closed just shy of last week's high 63.87. A move above should take this up to 64.65 level. Support 62.96
ETFs:
GLD 167 the fast moving average is the area to hold.
SLV Inside day. The 50 DMA is very close indeed.
XLF (Financials) Cleared 15.63, now looking eagerly at the 50 DMA overhead. 15.45 still important support
IBB (Biotechnology) Into some resistance but good example of what a strong bounce off of the 200 DMA looks like
SMH (Semiconductors) Intel giving this group a lot of grief. Will look better over 31.05 but until then, letting it play out
XRT (Retail) with the strong warning phase, and the struggle to close green, unless it clears the 50 DMA watch for signs of fatigue and a clue as to overall market direction.
IYR (Real Estate) Good volume move but can it clear the 200 DMA? Today's low now support to hold.
USO (US Oil Fund) Filled the gap left from yesterday's strong performance. If the situation in the M.E. calms, could see more downside
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day.
XLE (Energy) Closed back under the 200 DMA with an unconfirmed distribution phase. Gap low has to hold. Next resistance, 70.65
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) This relief today was one reason the market could stay firm over next few days.
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