Turnaround Tuesday: Rivian

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I have a few central themes for 2025. 

One is the ‘vanity’ trade based on the diet drugs. News today was that Biden administration is looking to expand coverage for the drugs through Medicare. 

That could be reversed by Trump of course, but I do not think it will be. 

Another theme is EVs-not so popular given the tariffs for one. 

And secondly, given that Trump is threatening to remove the $7500 tax credit for consumers buying an EV. 

But the used car market in EVs has picked up. 

Today, it was announced that Rivian wins preliminary approval for $6.6 Billion US loan. Federal Funds would support construction of a Georgia plant, plans that were halted earlier in the year to save money. 

Again, who knows what will happen next year, but for now, the stock ran up over 2% Tuesday after over a 10% move higher on Monday. 

Hence, we look at the weekly chart. 

Yesterday, I introduced you to the weekly exponential moving average. 

It was about Nu-Skin and how the price needed to clear that EMA after nearly 2 years trading below it. 

Rivian looks a bit different.  

Whereas NUS has the EMA well distanced from the 50-WMA (blue), the chart of Rivian is a bit different. 

Please watch the podcast I did with Geoff Bysshe yesterday as we cover this extensively and tell you some great insider secrets!  

Rivian first must clear the EMA. Ideally, we would like to see this clear on a weekly close. 

Then, with the 50-WMA so close, we would like to see that clear as well. Note that in this chart I also show you the Leadership indicator. Rivian could outperform the benchmark. That too would be healthy for the stocks’ price.  

Bottom line is that RIVN established a big base around $10.  

Now, if the stock closes above 11.50, we think that is a great start. 

 

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice. 

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, to learn more.

 

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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here 

Podcast with Geoff and Mish They discuss an exponential moving average and give you price levels for her "vanity" trades 11-25-24 

Business First AM Intel and the Chip Act could take the stock higher 11-24-24  

Financial Sense Mish on Broadening Rally, Retail Breaking Out 11-22-24

Malaysia Radio BFR 89,9 FM US December rate cut by the Fed amid frothy valuations in the US stock market? 11-22-24

Business First AM What’s in Your Stocking Stuffer? 11-22-24

Yahoo Finance Mish covers the almighty consumer and tech 11-21-24

 

Coming Up: 

November 27 Fox Business  

December 5-7, 2024 Money Show Master Class 

December 10 BNN Bloomberg 

Dec 18 CNA Asia 

Weekly: Business First AM 

 

ETF Summary 

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below) 

S&P 500 (SPY) 600 pivotal 

Russell 2000 (IWM) Hopefully just some long liquidation and not a key reversal 

Dow (DIA) 445 pivotal  

Nasdaq (QQQ) 500 now pivotal 

Regional banks (KRE) 65 support 70 resistance 

Semiconductors (SMH) 235 the 200-DMA to hold 250 resistance 

Transportation (IYT) Some profit taking but still healthy  

Biotechnology (IBB) 138 support 

Retail (XRT) 80 support  

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 79.50 pivotal