September 10, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Headline: Hipsters Buy Vinyl Records in Droves But Don’t Listen To Them
For nearly 2 weeks since my return after Labor Day, we have been watching the trading range in the indices established from the lows on August 25th to the highs made on September 4th.
Tuesday the market dropped nearly 100 points only to make up ½ of that loss on Wednesday. Do the lows put in Tuesday, now negating the lows from August 25th, in spite of the meager bounce on Wednesday mean that the breadth of the overall market is declining nonetheless?
Clearly the two main indices in juxtaposition to one another are NASDAQ and the Russell 2000s. NASDAQ had an inside day, remains close to the highs and never violated the trading range low at 99.00. In fact, it closed well, clearing the fast moving average. The Russell 2000s, touched the 50 DMA and bounced. However, 116 remained elusive for the day with the overhead resistance palpable.
At the sake of sounding like a broken record-wait a minute-talk about an anachronism-who listens to records? Regardless, seems the market likes this range give or take a few cents here and there thereby deserving no further query until volume comes in either direction or we see a confirmed phase change in the small caps.
And for the record, I had 3 ETFs I began to write about in July as featured picks-China-had its move and now leaving a potential island top, Solar-in what seems to be in its infancy stage of potential and Regional Banks-KRE, which finally cleared the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to Accumulation.
Last thought-interest rates-the TLTs broke the 50 DMA. That too has to confirm as a warning phase.
S&P 500 (SPY) 200 definitely pivotal. 198.75 not only support but the lows and now we have a new low of recent range to hold
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tested the 50 DMA and now must clear 116 to go back to a chance for higher
Dow (DIA) Like to see this follow suit and clear 170.80 level and hold 170 now
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day-big eyes here
XLF (Financials) 23.16 the bottom of the recent trading range and an inside day
KRE (Regional Banks) Phase change as noted above
SMH (Semiconductors) 51.44 lows to hold and 52.02
IYT (Transportation) Held the 10 DMA and now over 153.35 looks better
IBB (Biotechnology) In a range like everything else but good close
XRT (Retail) Like over 88.75
IYR (Real Estate) Higher rates and this gives it up as expected
ITB (US Home Construction) In a tight range making this worth a watch for a break either way
GLD 120 support for now
Metals and Mining (XME) Oversold on the 200 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Possible bottoming candle
XLE (Energy) Possible bottoming candle
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Worth watching on the 200 DMA after it popped
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Inside day on support
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs failed the 50 DMA and now has to confirm
UUP (Dollar Bull) Inside day near the highs
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