January 28, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Pete Seeger RIP
I have talked about the power of the phases thus far. In that respect, nothing has changed. All the indices ETFs remain in weak warning phases (I also wrote about the slope of the 50 DMA as a gauge to determine the weakness or strength of a phase.)
The volume on Tuesday’s reversal not impressive enough to make the textbooks. Finally, another favorite chart pattern to note-inside days (when the range of the session is INSIDE the range of the session prior). That happened in 3 out of 4 of the indices. DIA the exception clearing but not closing above Monday’s high.
Inside days typically means a pause in the action or indecision. Therefore, playing Sherlock here, I see a market still in correction, possible ready to resume a move up; however, more likely to resume or remain in the current phase with that nagging chance of the price accelerating to downside.
We shall know soon enough.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. Not sure I would follow aggressively to upside, More interested in SDS if fails the lows
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. Better than SPY but still hesitant at this point to get long
Dow (DIA) Worked off oversold condition in its current warning phase
Nasdaq (QQQ) AAPL dragged this down which means only if it clears today’s high does it look better
XLF (Financials) Better, but still in warning phase with all the concerns listed above
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed warning phase. Also, has to clear Tuesdays high to get interesting
IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed bullish phase which means has to hold the 50 DMA Wednesday
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the bull phase and should clear 244 if it’s going to stay there
XRT (Retail) Inside day and couldn’t make it back over the 200 DMA-really needs to or going lower
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day in the recovery phase-now has to clear Monday’s high
XHB (Homebuilders) Bounced off the 200 DMA yet remains under the 50 DMA
GLD Indecisive action here now-decent phase, has to hold and clear 121.50
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TBTs did not confirm the reversal low-now, the FED will have most immediate impact
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