Without A Human Guide, A Horse is Just a Wild Animal

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Compared to Friday, this feels more like a drift lower, but let’s not underestimate the power of phases and what information they hold.

The S&P 500 confirmed a warning phase meaning the price is under the 50 DMA for 2 days in a row. So did the Dow. Interesting, and a matter of simple physics really, is the slope of the 50 DMA. In the DIA, clearly the weakest index, that slope is still positive.

That could mean correction waning. It could mean that the real damage has not started or it could mean that given NASDAQ held over the 50 DMA and where the big guns live (AAPL reported and the post market wasn’t happy with the results) with AMZN and GOOG up shortly), correction over.

Point is, we really don’t know everything yet. Rates firmed today with the FOMC coming up as well on Wednesday, (Janet’s first statement at the helm). Inflection points everywhere with cash the major place to be for now if you are an active investor.

S&P 500 (SPY) Slope on the 50 DMA here is slightly positive. The relative strength on the daily charts oversold and the warning phase (now considered weakish) confirmed

Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed warning phase here making the next support area 12/18 low 110.36 and a move back over the 50 DMA encouraging.

Dow (DIA) Super oversold on the daily relative strength indicators now

Nasdaq (QQQ) Tested and held the 50 DMA. Now that AAPL has reported, that could be history

XLF (Financials) A lot will depend on what rates do from here it seems. For now, warning phase

SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed weak warning phase and where I might look second if the market comes back

IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed weak warning phase and where I might look third if the market comes back

IBB (Biotechnology) Still in a bullish phase making this the first place to look if market recovers

XRT (Retail) maybe close to a bottom, but would have to defend the 200 DMA

IYR (Real Estate) Let’s see what happens at the 50 DMA

XHB (Homebuilders) Touchdown on the 200 DMA-also a place to watch for a hold or failure

GLD Sniffing higher rates but with the recovery phase intact if holds 119.43 the 50 DMA

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Possible reversal after making new lows with the 200 DMA resistance

KRE (Regional Banks) Unconfirmed warning phase

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Watching here since it held the 50 DMA and it’s a group that should have a “green” future. Subscribers: Has to clear R1

BAL (Cotton) Broke the week long consolidation and the 200 DMA.

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