December 5, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Another low volume drift with the most significant phase change in the DOW with the confirmed distribution. Also significant is that NASDAQ held onto the 200 DMA keeping the warning phase intact and Russell 2000 or the small caps held onto their bullish phase. With S&P hanging out in the warning phase still within reach of the 50 DMA, next move is to follow either NASDAQ down if breaks under the 200 DMA or, if holds, follow everything else up!
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the fast moving average with the 50 DMA now at 142.12
Russell 2000 (IWM) Wrote on Sunday that the way it breaks on Monday should help to set the tone for the day and possibly the week. It's maintaining the strong phase provided 81.75 holds.
Dow (DIA) Closed below 129.75 the line in the sand, which means if does so a second day, a real reason for bulls to be cautious. Back above 129.80 a relief with some minor support at 129.25 the fast moving average.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held the 200 DMA at 65.50 marginally with a distribution day in volume.
ETFs:
GLD Gap lower with support at 163.50
XLF (Financials) Until this clears 15.85, hard to get too excited about the market. 15.43 should be support
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the 50 DMA which could be a good sign if continues
SMH (Semiconductors) Began the week under 32.00 or the 65-weekly moving average. Like to see it end the week over that level
XRT (Retail) It could be just resting, but better wake up soon or at least hold 62.50
IYR (Real Estate) Cannot clear the 50 DMA and until it does, the 200 DMA might attract it
OIH (Oil Services) Death cross last week but with a positive close and a DOJI candle
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Really want to see 60.50 clear to get excited about the market
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