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May 13, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


We came back from vacation to one of the toughest weeks I can remember. Warning phase, it was a stock pickers, hit and run market leaving both bears and bulls holding the bag way too often. I began the week looking at retail and real estate-both held up well. But the financial sector started to falter, and that was before the JP Morgan news hit the stream. Consumer confidence ended the week with somewhat of a high note. So here we are-bad news/good news-mixed market-exactly what warning phases are made of.

S&P 500 (SPY) Four failed attempts to get through 137 area and volume patterns that favor the bears. But, ended with a hammer candle and took a lot of bad news on the chin.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Under 78.00 and 75.50 looks obvious. Over 79.60 and 81.00 is next. Stuck in the middle

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) After 2 inside days would have expected some follow through when it broke the highs. But, since that did not happen have to think lower unless 65.00 clears.

GLD Did not rally enough to get us short again. Until then, aside

XLF (Financials) 14.38 the retracement to the weekly moving average

IBB (Biotechnology) Cleared 125.20 so fast on Friday, it was hard to chase. A close above 126.65 would look good which would be one reason to start thinking market is giving us ample time to buy in spite of the negative indicators.

SMH (Semiconductors) Looks better than the market provided 32.15 holds

XRT (Retail) A bear flag forming so unless it clears 61.00 lost some enthusiasm

IYT (Transportation) 91.00 important

IYR (Real Estate) Must clear 64.20 or see what happens at 63.00. But this and biotech are markets best hope right now

USO (US Oil Fund) DOJI hammer, oversold-200 DMA at 37.05

OIH (Oil Services) Daily very oversold-this is not where I would go for shorts right now

XLE (Energy) Rallied into early April resistance and stopped with another doji hammer candle close-but not that exciting

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