Were You Expecting Something Different?

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Today's Mish's Daily was prepared by Geoff Bysshe, co-founder of MarketGauge.

After 6 and 24 days of direction less trading in the SPY and QQQ respectively, it's hard to expect the indexes to extend beyond their well established ranges. The DIA matched its 8 day low, but the other markets stopped well short of their recent range lows, and they all recovered to close well into the top half of the day's range.

With the market having made an attempt to move lower today, it would be easy to expect it should test the top of the range tomorrow, but I'd be careful about expecting too much beyond that.

It's been a trendless but volatile week. Trade carefully on Friday.

S&P 500 (SPY) Until the two week range is broken up or down convincingly I'm not going to try to anticipate the next major direction

Russell 2000 (IWM) same analysis as stated for SPY

Dow (DIA) same analysis as stated for SPY

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) same analysis as stated for SPY

GLD Still trapped between the 200 and 50 DMA. But now I think I'd look at a long position over 163.15

SLV (Silver) I'm looking for a 30 min O.R. breakout over 31.00. Until then I'm just watching.

XLF (Financials) The multi-day range here is 17.67 to 17.37. Look for long reversal trades where your stop can be under 17.37

IBB (Biotechnology) Still stuck in its 1 month range

SMH (Semiconductors) Bounced nicely off the 10 DMA. If market rallies look for this to be strong too.

XRT (Retail) 67.20-67.00 is a good area to look for reversals.

IYT (Transportation) This one may be ready to move. 103.50 is the key support and 104.65 is a big breakout.

IYR (Real Estate) Has a tight 5 day range that is right under the 10-DMA. It could have a nice move in either direction when it breaks out of the range. Watch for a breakdown below 67.15.

USO (US Oil Fund) I'd wait for 35.15 to break to consider longs.

OIH (Oil Services) Held up well today. If the market is strong look for a long opportunity here.

XLE (Energy) 78.20 is the big number to break on the upside, then 78.60. Look for support at 77.35-00.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Trend is up. Today could have shaken out weak longs and it closed well so watch it closely over today's high of 67.82.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) nice move higher. Continues to be the leader in the energy space. Look for weakness to consider a trade.

XHB (Homebuilders) It has been correcting nicely. Waiting for a good set up to enter.

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Best wishes for your trading,

Geoff Bysshe
President

For more detailed analysis join me, along with hundreds of other subscribers, at Mish's Market Minute and get my daily trade picks, trade alerts, training videos, and exclusive analysis tools. Sign up for Mish's Market Minute now and get a free 2 week trial!