February 18, 2024
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Currently, there is no real reason for the Federal Reserve to either hike or lower the interest rates.
The overall market has absorbed these rates better than most expected.
Even with the CPI and PPI coming in hotter than expected, our risk factors have not moved much.
Risk remains on and Friday’s minor correction has yet to appear like anything more than that-minor.
The long bonds are still rangebound, although TLT is testing the lower regions of its trading range at around 92.00.
The chart shows the support level at 92 going back to early December.
This past week’s low is 92.23 and holding.
Momentum is doing better than price.
A break beneath that level (92), could spell trouble for instruments that are highly yield sensitive.
Nonetheless, this earnings season illustrated that growth stocks are just fine.
My “vanity” trades are just fine or pockets of consumer discretionary.
And commodities, especially precious metals, miners and oil, are all consolidating and getting ready to go higher.
So, what would make the Fed change their existing and persistent pause policy?
Many might say, including us, that the market began to show us that it believes the FED will be behind the curve again on both the potential of recession and/or the resurgence of inflation.
Just as we gave you 2 scenarios to watch for a market correction last week-junk bonds rolling over and/or small caps failing 200 in IWM…
Here is silver. Friday it rallied with higher yields and a stronger dollar.
It didn’t care.
Just watch this. A bigger move in silver could be the barometer we have been waiting for in our prediction that more inflation is on the horizon.
FED should be watching too!
Have a wonderful long weekend.
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Mish in the Media - All clips here
Final Bar with Dave Keller StockChartsTV Guest Mish breaks down the four charts she's watching during a market pullback and why she remains constructive on stocks 02-14-24
Business First AM Check out Mish’s newest stock pick to keep on your radar 02-13-24
BNN Bloomberg Valentines Day-What stocks do you love, want to marry, regret not holding 02-12-24
Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva Credit card balances for US consumers are climbing. Is this yet a concern for the market and economic outlook? 02-07-24
The Money Life with Chuck Jaffee Where Mish sees the markets going in the short and longer term 2024 podcast 02-06-24
Benzinga Morning Pre Market Mish sits with the team to discuss the recent job report and how a healthy economy is not the worst thing. It just means a reset of how investors invest 02-02-24
CNA Asia First Mish’s debut talking the Fed, inflation, big tech earnings and what investors should look out for 01-31-24
Money FM 89.3 Singapore Mish on breakfast bites talking earnings and interest rates-plus her made up ETF 01-31-24
Kitco News An Article with Neils Christensen on the direction for gold 01-30-24
Coming Up:
February 21-23 The Money Show in Las Vegas
February 26 CNA Asia First TV and Radio
February 29 Yahoo Finance
February 29 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
March 6 Trader’s Summit
March 8 Schwab
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 500 now the pivotal point-490 near-term support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 support
Dow (DIA) 385 pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) 430 pivotal support
Regional banks (KRE) Back to the 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) 200 pivotal
Transportation (IYT 266 support. 282 the highs so far
Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal
Retail (XRT) The Jan calendar range high at 73 now must hold
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: