When Markets Exhibit a Lack of Clarity, That’s Clarity

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Here are my most recent overall thoughts:

We are exercising caution as the growth stocks and SPY are in warning phases, well below their July calendar ranges and with momentum showing some mean reversion but not enough momentum to get me to put clients in new positions

Could that change?

Yes, but I’d rather wait for that to change and meanwhile consider the relative strength in the metal miners and oil right now.

Also, long bonds TLT are signaling trouble ahead with risk off.

 

As the market finds some footing we see rotation back into growth stocks.

While the market sorts out the true value of equities going forward considering these variables

1. future earnings
2. rising costs
3. Geopolitics
4. FED rate cut and by how much,

We are focused on commodities for investors looking to enter low risk, high return potential right now.

And to hear more about all of this and more…

It’s a bit of a rough cut, but our dear friend and former anchor of the Daily Briefing on Real Vision, the amazing Maggie Lake, sat with me for a wonderful discussion.

We cover

1. Risk factors-bonds, gold, recession or stagflation
2. Outliers-Oil, gas, copper
3. Emerging Markets Brazil China Vietnam
4. Bitcoin-and related technology
5. Megatrends-2 hot ones to watch for 2025

Here is the link.

Furthermore, here is a short segment with Angela Miles from Business First AM that sums it all up quickly.

Right now, the NASDAQ chart shows the lack of clarity.

While the move off the lows is impressive, QQQ needs to clear the 50-DMA and the July 6-month calendar range low.

The performance versus the SPY has improved, while the Momentum at this point, also needs to prove more.

 

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here

Business First AM Mish talks bonds, movement to growth, gold and gold miners 08-12-24

Interview with Maggie Lake Maggie and Mish cover gold, bonds, tech, solar, emerging markets, the vanity trade and more 08-12-24

Making Money with Charles Payne Mish and Charles discuss evidence for both risk on and risk off and why stagflation is the best definition 08-12-14

Business First AM All About Holding Rivian for the Longer Term 08-07-24

Better Trader Systems Podcast Mish goes teacher and explains how easy trading can be if you know about phases 08-07-24

 

Coming Up:

August 14 Mario Nawfal Spaces

August 15 Real Vision

*August 16-25 MISH ON VACATION

Weekly: Business First AM, stockpick.app

 

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY) 540 cleared which makes this level pivotal

Russell 2000 (IWM) 210 resistance 199 support

Dow (DIA) 400 back to near resistance

Nasdaq (QQQ) 475 area resistance

Regional banks (KRE) 50-52 support

Semiconductors (SMH) 240 resistance

Transportation (IYT) Eyes here to see if it can clear back over the 50-WMA

Biotechnology (IBB) 141 now support

Retail (XRT) 73.50 now super pivotal-strong above weak below

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Back to risk on over 78.00