When News Moves So Fast, Stocks Can Stand Still

October 16, 2023

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Waking up to a new week of geopolitical stress, fake news (Blackrock spot ETF), higher yields, softer dollar, equities rally, I thought to myself:

As far as the market goes, it feels like time is standing still.

Why would I think that?

It may not last and certainly we have opposing forces.

Seasonally, Q4 should be strong.

Bank earnings were solid with many more earnings on tap.

Inflation remains sticky.

Nobody knows if the Hamas-Israel war will escalate, lateralize, or resolve.

Buyers defended the major moving averages in small caps and retail sectors.

Our risk gauges are more neutral-not bearish or bullish.

There is no better time to go and review our Economic Modern Family on a weekly timeframe to help us assess if time has stopped, for how long and what is next?
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Top left, Granny Retail XRT, since the rally in late July, has not done much.

Above 57 but below the major weekly moving averages, we could say the range to watch is 57-65 to alter time in perpetuity.

Next is Gramps Russell 2000, Small Caps or IWM. Holding 170, IWM is stuck between major support and overhead resistance at 180. Even a move over 175 would be a good start to get things moving. And clearly a move under 170, not so healthy for time or investors.

Biotech IBB has been stuck in time for the last 4 weeks. 120-125 is the best range to watch.

Sister Semiconductors, SMH, in a bull phase, is nonetheless stuck between 140-157. As a typical leader of the market, we watch her carefully.

Transportation IYT had a great rally from June until late August. But since then, sits at April, May, June lows and now again at those same lows since late September. 220-235 a good range to watch.

Prodigal Son Regional Banks KRE may need to be banished from the Family. Since March, the direction of regional banks is questionable while big banks have the staying power.

Nonetheless, KRE, except for a couple of rallies and sell offs, sits between 40-45.

Bitcoin, a new member of the Family, was featured over the weekend in our Daily. Now, a close over 28,000 could begin a decoupling of both the family and time standing still.

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