April 30, 2024
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Not much has changed in the world of inflation predictions.
The dollar is rangebound.
The yields have topped out.
The FED has stagflationary issues to contend with.
Raw material supplies are low.
Geopolitics remain an issue.
Employment costs are rising.
The government debt remains high.
Money supply bottomed out in 2023.
Government spending has not abated.
But-
The consumer is starting to shift with consumer confidence coming in a lot lower than expected.
This in turn shifts market sentiment to recession and low demand, hence, lower inflation.
But what about silver?
This precious metal has had a big correction off the recent highs, yet now the price is approaching the support levels where it broke out from in late March.
Plus, every time the bears have come out on the metals, or oil for that matter, it has been a new buy opportunity.
Is this time different?
On the monthly chart not featured here, silver spent 7 months above the 23-month moving average or in a bullish 2-year business cycle.
On the futures chart of May (spot) featured here, on April 2nd, silver cleared $26.00, a level not cleared since April 2023.
To the argument that silver has topped, looking back at April 2023, we could make the best argument.
Silver cleared $26 but for only 3 weeks. Then it gapped lower in early May 2023 and did not clear that level ($26) again for a year.
Is that make this time bearish?
Maybe more a reason that silver is taking time to really go parabolic.
If silver futures break under $24 at this point, we would concede our bullish bias longer term.
For now, though, we like it when the weaker bulls shift-it gives us a chance to add to a position with a much better risk.
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Mish joined Maggie Lake for the Daily Briefing today. Check out Youtube to see the interview.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media - All clips here
BFM 89.9 Malaysia THE MAGNIFICENT 7 ARE NOW THE FANTASTIC FOUR Mish tells us how much of a divergence are we seeing in terms of performance and why these results still matter in spite of the Fed keeping pat on rates. 04-26-24
The Phoenix Show China Mish talks to The Phoenix Show in China about the upcoming Fed meeting 04-26-24
FOREX ANALYTIC Mish sees opportunities in commodities amid concerns over stagflation 04-25-24
Business First AM Mish covers regional banks, the small caps, value stocks, retail and bitcoin-with levels for you to act upon 04-23-24
Singapore Breakfast Bites Where are rates going? Mish talks about the higher for longer and why the FED could pivot on that 04-19-24
Neil Cavuto Coast to Coast Fox All About Netflix-Mish predicted that the stock peaked BEFORE the earnings report 04-18-24
Schwab Network Where the consumer will go next to spend money with Nicole Petallides 04-17-24
Kitco News with Jeremy Szafron A clear explanation on why gold is up, inflation, Fed’s next moves and where things are going from here 04-13-24
CMC Markets Take a ride with Mish and she goes through commodities, indices and currencies and gives you a short-term game plan using long term bias 04-10-24
CNBC Asia Inflation is Coming Which bodes well for industrial and precious metals.04-10-24
Making Money With Charles Payne Mish talks about small and mid-cap stocks and why sticking to companies with strong balance sheets and earnings growth makes for best investments 04-02-24
CNBC Worldwide Exchange Tesla is one aspect of a much larger megatrend in EVs. Mish covers the advantages/disadvantages of the company and the space 04-02-24
Coming Up:
May 3 Benzinga Pre Market Prep
May 10 Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, and new to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) Still in a caution phase-500 now support 511 the 50-DMA resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) Still in a caution phase-190 support 200-202 resistance
Dow (DIA) Still in a caution phase 380 support 388 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) Still in a caution phase 430 pivotal
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) Still in a caution phase 204 Support 220 resistance
Transportation (IYT) 63 support 67 resistance
Biotechnology (IBB) 128 resistance 125 support
Retail (XRT) 71.50 support 75 resistance
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Under 76.50 caution
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