July 20, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
“Let’s think stable and close the week on a high note.” Last sentence from last week’s daily. And so I begin with thanks! The Dow made the new all-time high last Thursday and managed to stay well within its grasp by Friday’s conclusion. The S&P 500 closed on new highs with an inside day from Thursday’s range. The Russell 2000 the same-new all-time high inside day from Thursday’s range. The thorn? NASDAQ-tech stocks like Google fell from grace putting in a reversal pattern in the QQQ which makes some of us scratch our heads as we go into this week. An early warning sign? A new divergence paradigm? An overreaction with a possible gap higher to begin the week following the other indexes? These are my questions. Here are my thoughts:
S&P 500 (SPY)169.07 the prior high from May 22nd, now what could be ancient history in the annals of reversal candles. Inside day which means a gap below go on defense. Otherwise, looks good for more
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day here as well-same applies-follow range break
Dow (DIA)Inside day-really, these patterns have to be healthy. However, we will watch 154 carefully as support to hold
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Struggling, with some more big earnings coming up-Apple, Amazon, Netflix. 75.00 pivotal and the gap low from 7/11 74.25 critical to hold
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)All good on the financial stage. 20.50 support
SMH (Semiconductors) Held the 50 DMA-not that I think this group is the be all tell all to our economic health. But, I do like to see semis at the party. 38.60 good number to pop back through
XRT (Retail) Sideways as this looks more like a time rather than price correction. The low of last week 80.39 good number to hold
IYT (Transportation) Probably a much better gauge of economic health-this closed right on the new highs
IBB (Biotechnology) Yet another new all-time high in what literally is the most spectacular multi-year rally
IYR (Real Estate)Confirmed the bullish phase.
XHB (Homebuilders) And just like that-back to unconfirmed bullish
GLD125 cleared and see a trip to 129 highly likely
USO (US Oil Fund)Sign of improving demand? Beginning of an inflationary period? More questions
OIH (Oil Services)New 2013 highs
XLE (Energy) 83.95 the 2013 high here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Still has the 2013 highs ahead of it at 63.30
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Looks a bit heavy after Friday
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