Will The Third Attempt Succeed?

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Will the third time be a charm? After consolidating for all of 2013, on Friday the QQQ closed above its consolidation range. This is its 3rd attempt to break out on a closing basis. The last 2 attempts (on 1/23 and 2/1) were immediately reversed the following day. Friday's attempt does have the distinction of having closed much further above the range than the prior two, but it lacks a pickup in volume, so other confirmation will be important this week.

The SPY and IWM also broke out of their consolidation ranges so this week I'll use the Friday range as an indication for the market's short term trend.

S&P 500 (SPY) Use Friday's range to gauge the short-term trend. The breakout held nicely, but lacked volume. Look for support at 151.50-.35.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke out of nice consolidation on low volume. Look for support at 90.55 and 90.40.

Dow (DIA) Made new highs with the other indexes but did not close there. However, it consolidated nicely in the upper half of its range.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Big breakout. Note it corresponds with a breakout by AAPL of its own range. Both have room to move and resistance. Friday's range will be a good way to play the next real direction. Look for support at 67.80-.70. and resistance at 68.20-.30.

GLD Extremely compressed. Still trapped between the 200 and 50 DMA. I'd look at a long position over 163.15. A short is worth considering under 161.00

SLV (Silver) Thursday broke down below the daily wedge. Friday did not follow through, but a break of 30.30 could move to 30.00 and 29.70 quickly. If you want to play the failed wedge breakdown look for break above 30.65.

XLF (Financials) Very tight inside day makes 17.62 and 17.55 the two key levels to watch.

IBB (Biotechnology) Still stuck in its 1 month range

SMH (Semiconductors): Helped power the Q's breakout. Look for support at 35.17 and resistance at 35.50.

XRT (Retail) Inside day. Look for support at 67.70

IYT (Transportation) Nice breakout but very low volume. 104.80-.65 is key support.

IYR (Real Estate) Nice breakout of a tight 5 day range right under the 10-DMA. Plus it had a big volume strong final 30 minutes. Look for support at 67.84-.70. Subs: look for OR reversals over S1, 67.58. OR breakouts work too.

USO (US Oil Fund) I'd wait for 35.15 to break to consider longs. Shorts watch for 34.50 to break.

OIH (Oil Services) Back over the 10 DMA and looking like Thursday may have been the flush as I suspected. Had a strong close. Look for support at 43.50-.40. Watch 43.75 resistance then swing highs at 44.12.

XLE (Energy) Strong day closed on the swing high, 78.60. Look for support at 78.20.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Trend is up, but consolidation is unclear.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Another nice move higher. Continues to be the leader in the energy space. Look for weakness to consider a trade.

XHB (Homebuilders) Very tight, no volume, inside day on the 20 DMA and support level of 28.25. Could break big either way use Friday's range. Subs will find a few of its components on the list today.