May 28, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Coming into this week, the setup was called for either a launch pad from Friday’s trading range or that range would become a ceiling. With the gap higher right from the opening bell, the launch pad scenario should set the tone for the remainder of the week with a couple of caveats. Bonds got hammered today (although no surprise to us who have been of the mindset that rates and the dollar would rise); the question remains on what the overall impact that will have on US equities. The sectors were mixed with the real estate group now below a major moving average while biotechnology ruled once again. The Russell 2000 or small caps outperformed the other indexes even though the Dow did well (but not good enough) given what we call the slingshot high left from May 22nd that still has to be cleared to see a move beyond current levels.
S&P 500 (SPY) Also has to clear the slingshot high from May 22nd at 169.07. The longer it holds the fast moving average or 166, the better the chances of that happening.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Does not have the classic slingshot high, but needs to clear that May 22nd high nonetheless, especially since 100 is a psychological barrier. Has to hold 98.40 level
Dow (DIA) 155.14 number to clear now
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Like to see this hold today’s low and get through 74.95
ETFs:
GLD After 2 inside days, this closed down but above Friday’s low, therefore not following through cleanly on the inside day rules. Now, it’s all about 130-the 50% retracement area from 2011 lows to 2012 highs
XLF (Financials) Today’s low good point to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) After holding 1790 support which we wrote about last week, today was the winner but yet-like everything, needs to clear recent highs 187
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed just shy of the fast moving average. 38.00 good level to see hold but also want to see it clear today’s highs
XRT (Retail) 77.00 a really good support level to watch for a hold.
IYT (Transportation) 116 is the number to clear as 113 the number to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Failed the 50 DMA going into a unconfirmed weak warning phase. The 2-day RSI is oversold-72.00 area to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) Interesting with rising rates to see this back over the 200 DMA and an unconfirmed accumulation phase
OIH (Oil Services) Still friendly to this unless it fails 43.50
XLE (Energy) 81.00 has been a big area of support and now 84 area to clear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Major game changer today. 2013 high 69.64
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Friendly here as long as 60.00 holds
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.95 number to clear
SGG (Sugar) Failed that channel again so off the watch until futures clears .17
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