November 17, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Nobody can argue with the strength of the overall market-well, some naysayers of course can-but lately, their platform is on the subway wearing vest signs that read, “The End is Near.” Now, that’s not to suggest that Wall Street is just giving away money. Few sectors/groups have had continual upward momentum, as many are tough to stick with unless one position sizes to pad the noise with super wide stops or daytrades the momo plays, exiting at the end of the day, with the understanding they could lose ground should that instrument gap much higher the next day. As we head into the upcoming week, continue to keep eyes on the small caps, interest rates, real estate and financial sectors. And even those indicators I have relied on are mixed. Real Estate and the TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds remain in bearish phases. The Russell 2000s are bullish, but have not joined their brethren to new 2013 highs. The Financials rocked last week, closing on new 2013 highs. I’m hardly suggesting you’ll find me on the subway platform anytime soon, but I do advise one keeps track of the market diversity. Follow the leaders and do not try to pick bottoms on the laggards. They will be first to collapse should the picture change.
S&P 500 (SPY) Getting overbought here in nosebleed territory. That means digestion/small correction is around the corner. Longer term-I wrote a while back that based on the monthly chart formation, a measured move to 220 is very possible.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 111.62 high from October 29th. 109.50 support
Dow (DIA) Not so overbought as the others, but big 3-day move might be a tough act to follow out the gate on Monday
Nasdaq (QQQ) When climbing Mt Everest, the worst thing to do is look down. That’s what our subway doomsday sayers do
XLF (Financials) New highs and very promising for 2014.
SMH (Semiconductors) The gift I wrote about and really, not too late
XRT (Retail) Besides Kohls (down this week), the retailers are enjoying the gains
IYT (Transportation) Just 2 weeks ago we were talking about a reversal candle. Now, new highs.
IBB (Biotechnology) After looking so tired, I now see the potential double bottoms from early October and early November.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day under the 50 DMA-eyes here
XHB (Homebuilders) If can clear 31.40 will see 32.50 but for now, might need some digestion
XLE (Energy) Made new 2013 highs. Highest high since 2008
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Last month this matched the 2008 highs then retreated-now that is good resistance until it clears-then it becomes a huge cup and handle
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs inside day under the 50 DMA-eyes here
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Looks poised for Monday
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