October 24, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Did a thorough analysis of the phases in all 4 indexes. In a nutshell: S&P 500 in a warning phase that could go either way-accelerate to downside or bring back buyers at least to test the overhead moving averages. NASDAQ in a strong warning phase, but holding the 200 DMA which probably means AAPL will be the do or die factor for its next move (points to down for now). Dow also now in an accelerated warning phase. Only aspect is that it is so oversold, the eventual test of the 200 DMA from here is not worth trading. Russell 2000 remains the most interesting. Possible bottoming formation remains intact. Big eyes there on Thursday. One more note: FED speaks, rates firm. But, that has been overall good for the important domestic sectors of the market-retail, real estate, financials particularly. Oh, the complexity of it all. As many successful traders will tell you-they make all their money perhaps 4 times a year. The rest of the time they sit on the sidelines. But, they remain relentless in their research because the world now turns on a dime.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Are you ready for the AAPL show? Aside until Friday.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) One of the few in a bullish phase.
IBB (Biotechnology) Interesting that this is still in just a weak warning phase. Continue to watch
SMH (Semiconductors) 30.34 is real important to hold as an overall barometer of the market.
IYR (Real Estate) 3 lows around 63.40 makes this compelling if holds and clears 64.20-has to close above there as well.
USO (US Oil Fund) Really oversold. Best case would be an island bottom if gaps higher. Otherwise, leave it alone
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) We should see September highs here again.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
