September 8, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Wait, was it Friday the 13th? Oh right, Friday the 13th is THIS coming Friday! It sure felt like a day filled with goblins and ghouls as the market opened better with the jobs report, tanked with Putin’s hawkish remarks, then recovered with NASDAQ making new 2013 highs only to close around unchanged. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000’s both tried hard to join ranks with NASDAQ’s bullish phase, but at the end of the session, simply ran out of gas. (As did most traders I imagine.) The market will begin this week equally sensitive to rumors concerning Syria, anxiously awaiting any decisiveness from the Fed regarding their bond buying policy along with any other shockers that might appear out of nowhere. My thought process is that the Fed will buy bonds aggressively this coming week, preventing a free fall from happening-of course with the usual sector rotation that this type of action yields. With Real Estate outperforming relative to the overall market’s performance last Friday (certainly not according to the current phases) along with Homebuilders, it seems I’m not the only one who detects this possibility.
S&P 500 (SPY) Failed the 50 DMA or more aptly put, tested and closed just shy of it. Following the inverted hammer candlestick last Thursday, it had an up day marginally with an accumulation in volume. However, unless this clears the 50 DMA then 167.30, heed the warning phase.
Russell 2000 (IWM) I often turn here when we have QQQ and SPY so diverse from one another. Warning phase closing just under the 50 DMA. Come Monday morning, this is what I’ll be watching. Higher open, going to take a more bullish bias all around. But, an open under 101.80 will spook me for sure.
Dow (DIA) Here’s another piece of the puzzle to chew on. This never got close to the 50 DMA since it gapped below it on August 15th. Blue chips are definitely not where it’s at!
Nasdaq (QQQ) On August 13th the 2013 high close was 77.10. Friday’s close 76.93. Monday will be the 1st time since before Labor Day the floor trader midpoints are stacked negatively, which makes 76.75 down to 76.55 important support to hold to start the week.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Came one tick from filling the gap from August 26th low at 19.93 two days in a row. That could be also telling. Above 19.93 better case for resume really.
SMH (Semiconductors) 37.50 a good point to hold but the 50 DMA at 38.12 would be even better
XRT (Retail) Like to see this over 80.00 as it too is flirting with the 50 DMA. See lots of retail stocks looking heavy.
IBB (Biotechnology) Shooting star candlestick? Not trying to call a top-more of a rest
IYR (Real Estate) Gapped higher. Like to see it stay above Friday’s low.
XHB (Homebuilders) Doji candle just under the 200 DMA
GLDNot real clear to me right here
USO (US Oil Fund)New 2013 highs
OIH (Oil Services)New highs for the year
UUP (Dollar Bull) Back to unconfirmed phase change to Distribution
FXI (China) Confirmed accumulation phase if the 200 DMA holds
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