Active Investing Edge Mentoring for August 13, 2026

August 13, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

TITLE: PPI Supports a Potential Breakout as Bonds Stabilize, Semiconductors Lead, and Opening Range Trades Define Risk (08-13-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff analyzed Thursday’s PPI reaction, noting that the modestly positive report added support to a potential S&P 500 breakout without jolting the market. He explained that the ES and QQQs were forming bullish wedges, while emphasizing caution because the long bond had not yet demonstrated a durable bottom. Geoff used TLT, gold, USO, VIX, IWM, RSP, and the 10-year Treasury yield to frame the intermarket confirmation needed for a broader advance. He outlined specific conditions, including crude oil weakening, bonds reclaiming key levels and their 10-day average, and VIX remaining contained. Geoff then demonstrated five-minute opening-range tactics around key inflection points, including entries, staged stops, reassessment levels, and the possibility of converting quick trades into swing positions. He reviewed sectors and individual setups in semiconductors, data centers, megacap technology, energy, and healthcare, stressing trend quality, support, momentum, volume, and disciplined position management.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] PPI and the Wedge Breakout: Geoff explained why the muted PPI reaction added another positive input for a possible ES breakout. He compared bullish wedge structures in the S&P 500 and QQQs while balancing upside expectations against the lack of a deeper correction.
  2. [00:11:55] Bonds, Oil, and Intermarket Confirmation: Geoff used TLT, gold, USO, and Treasury levels to define what bond stabilization would look like. He argued that lower crude oil and improving bonds could support stocks, IWM, RSP, and the broader advance.
  3. [00:19:45] Five-Minute Opening Range Framework: Geoff demonstrated a five-minute opening-range breakout around the 775–776 inflection area, showing how entries, stops, reversals, and 30-minute follow-through could separate a quick trade from a potential swing position.
  4. [00:27:48] Sector Leadership and Earnings Setups: Geoff reviewed SMH, financials, industrials, energy, healthcare, and selected earnings names. He favored sectors retaining leadership and explained why distance to support, ATR risk, and post-earnings price action mattered before entering.
  5. [00:41:14] Megacap Trends and Stock Selection: Geoff compared Oracle, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Apple through trend phase, moving-average structure, momentum, volume, and relative leadership. He used Meta as a warning against buying weak trends on explanations tied to news.
  6. [00:55:13] SpaceX and Dell Trade Management: Geoff discussed protecting gains in SpaceX with tighter or breakeven stops, then outlined a Dell breakout trade using VWAP, staged entries, ATR-based risk, and separate tight and broader invalidation levels.
  7. [01:07:55] Semiconductors, Energy, and Final Confirmation: Geoff evaluated NVIDIA and AMAT breakout structures, then noted strength in refining stocks VLO and MPC. He concluded that QQQs, IWM, and SMH were breaking out while bonds and the 10-year yield provided improving confirmation.

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