A Slap, A Shove and a Bump

May 28, 2017

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider


blankThe US equities markets recovered after its nasty swoon on May 17, following in Melania’s footsteps.  It gave the markets a meek slap on the wrist before bumping up to all-time highs with a 6-day consecutive run-up.

Equities even endured Trump’s shove of both the core NATO doctrine (article 5) and Dusko Markovic, the leader and newest member of NATO, Montenegro. Trump then went on to another event and threatened to put tariffs on German car manufactures which employ 110,000 US workers.

Therefore, the only conclusion one can draw of Trumps scorecard on his visit overseas is the markets either liked it or ignored it because its focused on something else.

Our conclusion is that Mr. Market is most likely focused on the “something else” category which is the economy and corporate earnings. To date those stats are in good standing.

Here is the scorecard. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 bumped up to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 closed up 1.4% for the week and the technology laden QQQ’s closed up 2.47% on the week which puts it up a scorching 19.19% YTD.

Most key indexes had inside days ahead of the three-day weekend. The overall trend as indicated by bullish phases in equities are all strong and intact. Market Internals improved as well.

Semiconductor’s and Technology continue to be leading sectors with value stocks (VTV) lagging growth stocks (VTG) by even wider margins. Another positive sign is that the Transportation (IYT) sector, an initial recipient of the Trump bump reignited this week, back into a bullish phase.

Interestingly, our Risk On/Off indicators are still lit red, with utilities now one of the leading market sectors. Safety plays like Consumer Staples also performed well.

Other crosscurrents which are typically considered bearish for equities include, gold popping on Friday, and alternative currencies going parabolic.

Bearish commitments are also holding steady, despite equities being at new highs.

The conclusion is that most of the audience likes the show, but some are keenly aware of the emergency exits as there could be a hidden bomb in the theater.

Also, I would like to take a moment to thank all those that served and currently serve in our military this Memorial Day weekend. Especially my dad who fought in WWII and was wounded in the Battle of the Bulge and my great uncle who was killed in off the coast of Leyte.

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