All That Glitters

July 7, 2019

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider

blankThe performance of the US Equities markets was strong, up over +2% on average for the week. Meanwhile the IWM confirmed a bull phase on excellent volume. Gold (GLD) sold off  Friday but held onto it’s breakaway gap put in a few weeks ago and still strongly in play.

Economic data points to a slowing global economy despite the very strong jobs market in the US, even while corporate earnings have been slashed for the next quarter.

The aftermath of the G20 seems dubious at best with China firm on having the US remove tariffs before trade talks resume. The worlds equity markets shrugged it all off and mostly closed higher.

Trump stepped up attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powelll to lower rates stating “he doesn’t have a clue”, while ratcheting up the trade war with the EU and Vietnam.

This week’s highlights are:

  • Risk Gauges improved to bullish
  • Volume patterns remain mostly (IWM is the positive exception) neutral despite strong weekly price gains
  • US long bonds (TLT) short-term momentum divergence weighed in on Friday with bond rates rising on a strong jobs report
  • Emerging Markets retreated on a relative basis to US stocks
  • The Modern Family (cyclicals) improved except for Semis (SMH) which lagged with a down week
  • Both Transportation (IYT) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) confirmed bull phases
  • High Yield debt continues to underperform US bonds despite the spiral to negative rates in much of the world

Most interesting is that gold which gapped lower on the rise in rates Friday morning, reversed direction and closed on its highs by the close. It was still down on the day but showed strength. The yellow relic has been rejecting lower openings with large gaps.  Our interpretation is that gold is digesting its recent gains rather than vomiting them out, a healthy sign for the metal.

If the disconnect between the market’s reaction to murky economic conditions and global geo-political tensions has you confused, check out our most recent “trades and tutorials”  which delves into how to objectively discern and profit from all types of market action using three Market Gauge proprietary indicators by clicking here.

For this week's video, click below.

Best Wishes for your trading!

Keith Schneider


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