Commodities, Especially Softs on Major Breakout!

November 14, 2021

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider


blankBy Keith Schneider & Donn Goodman

Are you ready for rising food prices and Thanksgiving?

Ready for even more exorbitant building supplies and a higher cost of building and maintaining a house?

Ready for even more increased costs of travel and entertainment?

Ready for even slower service at your local restaurant as they grapple with fewer people working?

Ready to wait even longer for that new or used car you are trying to lease or purchase?

Ready for much higher gasoline prices and out of sight heating bills.

Are you seeing that stocks are trading at nosebleed valuations bringing back memories of 1999-2000 while the Fed continues to pump?

Unfortunately, these are all the inevitable outcomes of a post-Covid world and less people in the job force, a shortage of semiconductors for cars and a stock market that keeps going up no matter what the inflation numbers are clearly showing.

My business associate Donn had some work done at his home in Ohio this past month. When he received the invoice, the labor cost was 1/3 the material cost for replacing some siding on his house. This reality has not occurred since the late 70's.

Here in Santa Fe, we are hosting our Thanksgiving gathering with many of our nearest and dearest coming to our house to enjoy the holiday.

We were informed this past week that the cost of the turkey will be around 16% higher than last year at this time (which looks cheap compared to stuffing and cornbread whose main ingredients are corn and wheat).

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The Fed May Have It Wrong.

We at MarketGauge continue to believe (as Mish repeatedly says on TV) that given the speed of rising prices in commodities, goods and services, and corporations' ability to pass on their higher costs to consumers, the Fed should be countering this inflation by raising interest rates.

Higher interest rates would dampen price increases and potentially slow down the economy.

However, the Fed is fearful of it negatively affecting the job market and tanking the stock market.

They mentioned that they will begin to taper $15 billion a month, in bond purchases.

Is this enough?

Probably not!

Jim Grant, publisher of the Interest Rate Observer, in a recent interview, said it best:

"The Fed reminds me of a speculator who is on the wrong side of the market.”

The fact that the Federal Reserve is now beginning to taper its bond purchases makes little difference in Grant’s view.

Grant also admitted that his timing of the stock market has been off as he’s been predicting a reckoning for several years,

Our message is to take advantage of the rally in stocks, but be prepared to exit on a moment's notice.

The traditional 60/40 portfolio might still hold if you replace bonds with the other B …. Bitcoin.

 

This Week's Market Highlights:

 

Risk On/ Bullish

  • Despite the selloff this week in the indices, volume patterns improved across the key US equity benchmarks and held their 10 DMA's
  • Volume analysis shows that there were no distribution days for IWM over the past 2 weeks putting Grandpa Russell (IWM) in the spotlight for further strength
  • Interest Rates spiked lower to start the week and got overbought short term before mean-reverting but hanging onto a bullish phase
  • Semiconductors (SMH) and Homebuilders (XHB) were both up on the week, two positive risk-on indications
  • DBA (Soft Commodities) Gold Miners (GDX), Silver (SLV), and Clean Energy (PBW) lead the week, a clear sign of inflationary pressures which could be a positive for stocks short term and extremely negative long term
  • In Mish's Modern Family, Retail (XRT) closed very strongly on the week, outperforming the SPY on both a short and longer-term basis on good volume
  • The dollar ripped higher across the board hitting the highest levels in more than a year which is mostly a positive for US stocks considering current conditions

 

Risk Off /Bearish

  • Sector rotation shows some risk-off type behavior, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY) being the biggest loser on the week - 3.5%
  • Gold (GLD) and Gold Miners (GDX) were both strong on the week breaking out of multi-month bases

 

Neutral Metrics or Just Noteworthy Developments

  • Risk Gauges remain neutral but deteriorated slightly as Gold rallied while stocks retreated
  • Stocks were down marginally on the week, -.5% after a nice bounce to close the week on Friday
  • Market internals moved down to neutral to negative readings because of this week's selloff
  • Long Term Interest Rates spiked lower and got overbought early this week before mean-reverting
  • Transportation (IYT) needs to be watched carefully, it is either on the cusp of a major breakout or potentially looking at a double-top pattern

 

This Week’s CryptoPulse Highlights

This week we introduced our new CryptoPulse service with a new trading model!

CryptoPulse is MarketGauge’s very own trading dashboard that includes access to our impressive Crypto Quant trading model, market commentary and analysis, proprietary coin and stock sector radars, interactive charts, and valuable resources for anyone looking to be involved in the cryptocurrency space.

Learn more about the NEW CryptoPulse Quant Trading model here
(Its returns since 2017 are better than every major coin, including BTC!)

This week’s CryptoPulse highlights include:

  • This week’s biggest winners (ETH), losers (DOT), and what to watch next week (LFT), and more
  • Analysis of the most significant cryptocurrencies/projects looking to compete with Ethereum for a share of the DeFi space
  • Why the SEC’s rejection of VanEcks proposal for a spot Bitcoin should not be viewed as bearish
  • The date you should be watching for significant news about the next attempt to get a spot ETF approved by the SEC.

Read the Weekly CryptoPulse Analysis here

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