October 30, 2017
Weekly Market Outlook
By Keith Schneider
The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) melted up +1.7% this week, and almost +3% on Friday, led by FANG stocks. This made up for some recently lost ground on a relative basis with all the other key indexes. This action put semi-conductors and tech leadership even further ahead of the maddening crowd.
However, besides the social media and tech melt up, 7 of the 14 market sectors we track were down for the week. This negative action was led by health care.
IWM and small caps got ignored and closed down -.4% for the week, so the rally was hardly broad-based. Market Internals were also mixed as our New High/Low indicator shows a narrowing of the rally amid the QQQ melt up.
However, supporting the rally is the fact that the economy is growing at a good clip of 3%. Not what Trump has claimed but still excellent.
Leading the charge was Amazon as it blew away earning expectations. Not even fully factored in (it's still integrating into its eco system), was its purchase of Whole Foods. Plus, Amazon was just approved to sell drugs online.
Amazon will now be at your doorstep even more frequently, allowing you to wash down the drugs you ordered with some Pellegrino ordered from Whole Foods while not having to budge from your lazy boy as you watch a video from original programming ordered from Amazon Prime. Utopia or dystopia, your call.
The data shows that sentiment according to Investors Intelligence is too bullish, but our personal informal survey says otherwise as many investors are nervous and are looking to get out of equities. Options volatility is low, but not excessively so and it's not near its lower Bollinger bands which would indicate a blow-off top.
There are three big themes unfolding, strength in commodities (such as crude oil, sugar), solar stocks, and Asian equities. In a nutshell, our Risk Gauges are positive and now that we are moving into the strongest 6 months of the year there is no telling just how much further equities can run. For real specifics on the new themes click here for this week’s video.