Major Overhead Supply Ahead?

April 26, 2020

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider

blankRisk Gauges backed off to neutral as U.S. equities put in a rather muted week, with the NASDAQ 100 down -.63% while Grandpa Russell (IWM) picked up some lost ground by closing +.29%.

Both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 closed above key moving averages.

Assuming things are still status quo and Kim Jun Um does not launch into the hereafter destabilizing North Korea, markets might have a bit more upside before hitting major overhead supply.

Most surprising is that Grandma Retail (XRT) closed positive +.5%. Considering the fresh bailouts, why not, and welcome to the new normal. Nothing like a few looming major retail chain bankruptcies to spur a rally.

Capitol Hill injected another $500 billion for bailouts, and even more help could be coming from the Fed. This could include buying up the Oilpatch (which needs serious help as spot crude prices hit minus 37 dollars a barrel) or dropping rates to negative yields.


This week’s highlights are:

  • Risk Gauges are slightly positive
  • Biotech & Consumer Discretionary (Risk on sectors) outperformed
  • Consumer staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) (Risk-Off sectors) got hit hard
  • Growth stocks seem unfazed by the virus and continue to lead
  • The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 held critical moving averages.
  • High Yield debt issues are still an issue and flipped negative
  • Gold Miners finally followed thru on its breakout from a decade long base

Check out this week’s video as we will cover a potential long setup in the oil patch.

Stay safe and best wishes for your trading.

Keith Schneider

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