January 10, 2021

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider

blank“It’s a Gas. I am in the High Fidelity, First Class Traveling Sect and I think I need a Lear Jet”
The song "Money" by Pink Floyd

“Money can’t buy happiness, But it sure can rent it for a while”
Kim Gruenenfelder

“Never Spend Your Money Before You Have Earned it”
- Thomas Jefferson

Our focus this week on how money serves several purposes.

One, we want to highlight what is going on with the assault on the dollar and central banks worldwide stimulating their economy and essentially reflating their own currencies which is having a detrimental effect on fiat currencies worldwide.

While the US Dollar is losing ground over the past few months, money is pouring into the stocks, collectibles (artwork, expensive watches), and homes especially in desirable areas like South Florida.

Moreover, new digital fiat currencies are soaring like Bitcoin, Etherium, and other makeshift digital currencies with little to no trading history.

Most impressively is the number of stocks and ETF’s in the MarketGauge models that are up over 50%.  And three stocks we purchased last Monday for our Small Cap All-Stars soared this past 5 days with one up over 20%, one up over 30%, and one up almost 50% in one week.

I cannot remember when a non-leveraged model of ours was up over 8% in one day.

The second focus is what Mr. Jefferson said above.  Don’t spend it before you earn it.  One of the things we are most proud of in our services is our ability to preserve capital with risk-averse stops.

Even more important are the pre-determined target prices we put in place as we are buying a new stock or ETF.

Last week in several of our models, we hit target after target and were peeling off profits and locking-in gains.

We hit two targets on one stock in one day and issued out profit alerts.

Remember we purchased these stocks only a day or two before.

Again, my recollection is that I do not remember this happening with our models previously.

But more importantly, we want you, our subscribers to reap the benefits of the MarketGauge process and get to see the money you have earned.

As we all know all too well, the markets can be cruel and take away profits quickly.

We had a great year in all our models last year.  Going into the New Year I was a bit concerned with the possibility of an imminent correction (which will inevitably happen eventually).

However, with a new administration being ushered in, the Democratic victory in Georgia and an even split Senate, the markets believe more stimulus will occur, infrastructure and clean energy will be the Administration’s emphasis and once again money poured into smaller stocks.

We are blessed that we have developed strategies that identified these stocks and took advantage for our subscribers.

And that is the start of 2021 and the emphasis on MONEY.

The highlights of this week’s market action are as follows:

  • Risk gauges went to full Risk-On mode
  • The strength in Small Caps (IWM) continues as its leadership is clearly delineated by the TSI (Trend Strength Indicator) which is double that of the other three US equity benchmarks (SPY, DIA and QQQ)
  • Volume patterns are still showing divergences from price action with just one accumulation day in Grandpa Russell (IWM)
  • Safety plays such as Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP) and interest rate sensitive Commercial Real Estate (IYR) were all down during an explosive week for the key indexes
  • The Modern Family (all key US market sectors) is on solid ground
  • Breakout for Biotechnology (IBB) in the Modern Family shows new speculative money coming into market
  • Breakout for Regional Banking (KBE) in the Modern Family shows Institutional Investors are looking to put money to work in Value areas of the market.
  • New recent highs in 10-year interest rates has propelled financials higher as net interest margin gets rewarded.
  • Growth (VUG) is battling for leadership over Value (VTV) and the outcome yet to be decided
  • Solar (TAN) and Clean Energy (PBW) continued their parabolic moves, up over 15% for the week
  • The dollar shrugged off trouble in Washington DC and at the Capitol Hill and closed basically flat for the week
  • Market Internals (McClellan Oscillator) are still lagging price action but regained to a neutral reading
  • US Long Bonds (TLT) broke key support levels dragging Gold (GLD) and Silver down with it
  • Overall, Foreign equities continue to outperform US stocks with EU stocks leading
  • Silver and Gold tanked on Friday, pressured by rising bond yields while ignoring the global uncertainty caused by a shaky situation with leadership in Washington
  • Oil (USO) was up over 7%, just under a key weekly moving average) predicting a continued economic rebound.
  • Soft Commodities paused this week sitting at multi-month highs

Best Wishes for your trading

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