2 Out of 3 Ain't Bad $SPY $QQQ $IWM

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Friday was just the type of day one would expect after a couple of days of huge selloff and phase changes accompanied with good volume. Digestion and a meager bounce off of the lows: not enough to actually totally believe a bottom is in place, but just enough to make the start of this week compelling and a bit hopeful. When the market bottoms, there are obvious signs. 3 classic signs of a bottom. 1) Double the average volume on a big down day. (Happened on 11/7) 2) A big green candle with an accumulation in volume (Happened on 11/9) 3) Consolidation and break over resistance, again with decent volume. (Almost happened as volume was in accumulation in S&P 500 but it could not close above the 138.30 the 200 DMA). Therefore, with 2 out of 3 in the works, would not discount the possibility that the selling is done for now. On the other hand, with the 200 DMA such an obvious area to hold and clear, recommend traders wait for that to confirm before putting on new long swing trades.

Note: Check out TA Stocks and Commodities Magazine- November issue, an exclusive interview they did with me. Come meet Keith and me in Las Vegas 11/14-11/18 at Caesar's Palace.

S&P 500 (SPY) Over the 200 DMA 138.26 and clearance of Friday high, especially with a close above, a pop is more feasible. Otherwise, could see 135.

Russell 2000 (IWM) If this gets back over 80 would go long but ultimately has to cross the 200 DMA to stick.

Dow (DIA) 129.75 the 200 DMA. Oversold on the weekly RSI.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day. Very oversold weekly RSI. This is a great index to watch and follow the way Friday's range breaks.

ETFs:

GLD Stopped dead in its tracks at the 50 DMA keeping the weak warning phase intact.

SLV Closed over the weekly moving average but not the 50 DMA. 31.00 big area to hold

XLF (Financials) As long as 15.45 holds, a chance to see if this has legs to get back over 15.85-a very clear healthy sign. Otherwise, likely to see the 200 DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) Nice looking candle-bullish engulfing with a close over the 200 DMA. 128.80 area to hold.

SMH (Semiconductors) Closed below the fast moving average. That makes 31.80 an area that has to clear for more upside.

XRT (Retail) Held the 200 DMA.

IYT (Transportation) Weaker performer Friday. Like to see a return over Friday's high for renewed confidence.

IYR (Real Estate) Unconfirmed distribution phase and a very important piece of the puzzle in the case of seeing more upside. Has to close back above the 200 DMA.

USO (US Oil Fund) As it began to work off some oversold conditions last week, expect more upside, which eventually should lead to another low risk short opportunity

XLE (Energy) Landed on the 65-weekly moving average. Now, has to get back over the 200 DMA to be a contender.

REE (Rare Earth Element) Looking at a possible slingshot against some good support from spring lows

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The bleed has to stop here as well.

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