July 26, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
**Note: Today’s Evening watch was prepared by Jonathan Griffin Assistant Director of Trading Education and Research
Two Hearts Now Beating as One
Friday’s session was a perfect example of how tired the market is at these levels. After big names in the Nasdaq reported over the last two weeks, we saw a strong move to the highs of the 2015 trading range.
Yet even with Amazon (AMZN) gapping higher by 100 points, the weariness of the market took hold.
Weighing concerns about China as well as dropping commodity prices added to the selling action on Friday. However one bright spot in the sea of red was the fact that silver (SLV) and gold (GLD) both put in potential bottoming patterns, if they confirm on Monday.
We can muse all day why commodities could hold and run. Perhaps in spite of talk about an interest rate rise and with a market shaking up investor confidence, the metals just might be a good place to park some money.
We go into next week with all four indices sitting on key support levels.
The range established so far in 2015 is now critical as the market stands ready to either bounce yet again or plug its nose and take a dive!
This sheep-like range has proven itself again and again, particularly when things look bleakest.
Mish will be back with us on Monday!
S&P 500 (SPY) Broke under the 100 DMA making 206.41 the 200 DMA the next level of support.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Looking a bit oversold now. Held support at 121.28 and under that we have the 200 DMA at 120.57.
Dow (DIA) Confirmed distribution phase, yet now oversold . Must hold around 174.44.
Nasdaq (QQQ) The only index still holding its bullish phase with 109.74 the 50 DMA to defend.
XLF (Financials) failed the 10 DMA and also confirmed a reversal pattern at the highs. 24.88 now support.
KRE (Regional Banks) Closed just under the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed warning phase.
SMH (Semiconductors) Put in a new 2015 low. Next support is around 49.34.
IYT (Transportation) Failed monthly support and now if 142.72 doesn’t hold, look out below!
IBB (Biotechnology) The only member of our modern family still holding a bullish phase, with 371.96 the 50 DMA to hold.
XRT (Retail) Sharp sell off here, yet now oversold with support at 96.02.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day here just under the 50 DMA at 74.23
XHB (US HomeBuilders) Unconfirmed warning phase.
GLD (Gold Trust) A possible reversal in the works provided this holds 103.43 and closes over 105.59.
SLV (Silver) Also a possible reversal if holds 13.73 and closes over 14.02
GDX (Gold Miners) Even the miners got a break on Friday!
USO (US Oil Fund) Held the 2015 low for now.
OIH (Oil Services) So much for that reversal!
XLE (Energy) Ouch!
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Very Ugly!
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Confirmed the bearish phase.
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 33.62 is the place this must hold!
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Strong move up here. 122.00 will be the next resistance, an now looking a bit overbought!
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.38 now support to hold
CORN (Corn) Held the 50 DMA at 24.13.
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