January 2, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Happy New Year! Some confirmed phase changes to mention: S&P 500 back to a bullish phase. NASDAQ back to an accumulation phase-clearing the last swing high. The Dow back to bullish and Russell 2000 has been bullish but now has 2012 high 86.96 to contend with. An excellent start to the New Year with good volume. Now, the most fun part will be watching sector and group rotations-will the trends from 2012 continue or will there be new leaders?
S&P 500 (SPY) 146.50 is next area of resistance while 145.15 level good support to hold
Russell 2000 (IWM) 86.96 the 2012 high-either it clears and runs for another leg up-but since have to be prepared for anything, fails the high and breaks 86.00 for a correction
Dow (DIA) 133.70 level was recent high which cleared on the close. 137 if this holds, looks like a reasonable target
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 66.75 a good area to hold. 67.27 some minor resistance but after that, looking possible for a move to 71.00.
ETFs:
GLD Underperformed after opening into resistance. 162.75 December 31st high.
XLF (Financials)17.12-17.20 is the 2011 high with 16.70 now support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) Like with most of the gaps higher today, the gap low should hold to keep the move going until sectors get way oversold. A correction would be great, but may not happen just yet.
XRT (Retail) Underperformed the market. Could reflect some consumer hesitancy ahead of the second round of negotiations on debt ceiling.
IYT (Transportation) 101 is the target. 96.00 should hold.
IYR (Real Estate) 66.25 resistance. Like to see today's low hold or could be some signs of trouble
USO (US Oil Fund) Would not be looking for a long now. With the gap up, might consider a short under today's low
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Called for a bottom last month-now pushing against the 200 DMA.
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