December 30, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Totally makes sense that the week would end with many inside days in some indexes, plus many sectors and groups. The current phases could help in determining next direction, but they are mixed from bullish in small caps (Russell 2000) to bearish in the NASDAQ. S&P 500 closed out the week in a warning phase indicating a more "on the fence" phase or a "wait and see" if the small caps can boost the market up or if the leading stocks continue the drag down. Add to the mix uncertainty in Washington, one last day of 2012 ahead of another holiday-and it could just be a hurry up and wait until January 2nd environment, with cash the active investors' best friend.
S&P 500 (SPY) Friday nearly had an inside day taking out Thursday's low by a few ticks. Wedged between the 50 and 200 DMAs. Confirmed warning phase, not really oversold.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day and holding the bullish phase. If crosses over 83.40 good sign. But still has lots of room down to the 50 DMA.
Dow (DIA) Took out Thursday low and closed weak in an unconfirmed phase change to distribution. 130 pivotal and resistance as the 200 DMA. 127 next support
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) An inside day. In spite of the bear phase, the market internals are neutral in the short term and slightly negative in the long term. The weekly chart continues its uptrend but with weekly support looming sort of as a "dare to see if I break or not attitude." AAPL managed to defend recent lows. An inside day-so much of QQQ will depend on whether this can clear 519 or fail 500.
ETFs:
GLD Inside day and pulling away from the 200 DMA. Inside day suggests indecision while the distribution phase, makes it suspect
XLF (Financials) Inside day. Still in the best shape. But, until it crosses 16.44 aside
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day and confirmed warning phase.
SMH (Semiconductors) Marginally held the 50 DMA for now with an inside day maintaining a recovery phase.
XRT (Retail) One of the few ETFs that did not have an inside day and tried hard but failed to hold the 200 DMA.Now, in an unconfirmed distribution phase.
IYT (Transportation) Still in correction mode.
IYR (Real Estate) Besides financials, in a bull phase with an inside day.
XLE (Energy) Unconfirmed distribution phase unless it can get back over with a close above the 200 DMA.
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