Bears Be Like, SPLAT

November 1, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

blankThe Federal Reserve FOMC minutes had the hopeful bears up against the wall.

On the one hand, with an early drop in price on all the sectors plus the one index we warned about, it seemed like the bears were king-at least for half a day.

And legitimately so.

Biotechnology (IBB), with another red close under 327 is close to testing 310.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) got down to 147.44, thereby holding the critical 147.

Retail (XRT) remains under 40.00 but held the 39.25 interim support level to a tee.

And Transportation (IYT) fluctuated above and below 176, ultimately closing at 176.10.

But then, with minimal fanfare, the Fed announced a status quo policy.

With that, and some bruises, the bears retreated. The bulls tried to take over.

As the bears and the bulls duke it out, I had two new thoughts emerge.

First one-Terror at 25,000 in the Dow, which supplants the December 2016 musing of Terror in the Dow at 20,000.

And the older version from October 2016, Terror in the Dow at 18,000.

Nearly 7,000 mind-numbing points later, I wonder which gremlin on the wing of this higher-flying plane will or can make the Dow scared to soar any further?

Second thought-the blow-off rally might have already occurred. Only, in a concentrated fashion-all in NASDAQ and the FANG stocks.

Now, that could be premature.

After all, Facebook has yet to report. And Apple, although not part of FANG, reports Thursday. That will have an impact as well.

The Federal Reserve is one part of the equation-they still wait for higher inflation, sustained, strong economic numbers before the December meeting. That’s the one the market banks on for higher rates.

Then there’s the weakening sectors, particularly Biotechnology and Transportation.

Even Regional Banks-our Prodigal Son (KRE) hit the skids today when the Fed said no change.

Gremlins can take many forms. The key is that when you see one, hide your eyes, wait a few minutes and then look again.

If it’s gone, up against the wall. If it stares back at you, fasten your seatbelts.

S&P 500 (SPY) Made a new high and closed only slightly higher. Under 256.50 some trouble

Russell 2000 (IWM). The 147-support holding. 144.50 super important and if good, this needs to take out 150

Dow (DIA) 233.40 the 10 DMA support it has basically held since early September

Nasdaq (QQQ) 149.40 support

KRE (Regional Banks) 57.00 pivotal 55.50 support

SMH (Semiconductors) 100 pivotal

IYT (Transportation) Back above the monthly channel on the new month-still best place to watch

IBB (Biotechnology) 310 support to hold

XRT (Retail) 39.25 support and needs to retake 40.00

GLD (Gold Trust) Aside but watching over 122

SLV (Silver) 16.25 next point to clear

URA (Uranium) Subscribers: Some volume buying today

USO (US Oil Fund) Healthy pullback-Imagine digestion good over 10.80

XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) confirmed phase change to accumulation

OIH (Oil Service Holders) confirmed phase change to recovery

XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) 35.52 the 5-week MA

TAN (Solar Energy) Inside day

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 125-125.70 should be resistance now

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.37 the 200-week MA and 24.80 resistance

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