November 1, 2017
By Mish Schneider
The Federal Reserve FOMC minutes had the hopeful bears up against the wall.
On the one hand, with an early drop in price on all the sectors plus the one index we warned about, it seemed like the bears were king-at least for half a day.
And legitimately so.
Biotechnology (IBB), with another red close under 327 is close to testing 310.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) got down to 147.44, thereby holding the critical 147.
Retail (XRT) remains under 40.00 but held the 39.25 interim support level to a tee.
And Transportation (IYT) fluctuated above and below 176, ultimately closing at 176.10.
But then, with minimal fanfare, the Fed announced a status quo policy.
With that, and some bruises, the bears retreated. The bulls tried to take over.
As the bears and the bulls duke it out, I had two new thoughts emerge.
First one-Terror at 25,000 in the Dow, which supplants the December 2016 musing of Terror in the Dow at 20,000.
And the older version from October 2016, Terror in the Dow at 18,000.
Nearly 7,000 mind-numbing points later, I wonder which gremlin on the wing of this higher-flying plane will or can make the Dow scared to soar any further?
Second thought-the blow-off rally might have already occurred. Only, in a concentrated fashion-all in NASDAQ and the FANG stocks.
Now, that could be premature.
After all, Facebook has yet to report. And Apple, although not part of FANG, reports Thursday. That will have an impact as well.
The Federal Reserve is one part of the equation-they still wait for higher inflation, sustained, strong economic numbers before the December meeting. That’s the one the market banks on for higher rates.
Then there’s the weakening sectors, particularly Biotechnology and Transportation.
Even Regional Banks-our Prodigal Son (KRE) hit the skids today when the Fed said no change.
Gremlins can take many forms. The key is that when you see one, hide your eyes, wait a few minutes and then look again.
If it’s gone, up against the wall. If it stares back at you, fasten your seatbelts.
S&P 500 (SPY) Made a new high and closed only slightly higher. Under 256.50 some trouble
Russell 2000 (IWM). The 147-support holding. 144.50 super important and if good, this needs to take out 150
Dow (DIA) 233.40 the 10 DMA support it has basically held since early September
Nasdaq (QQQ) 149.40 support
KRE (Regional Banks) 57.00 pivotal 55.50 support
SMH (Semiconductors) 100 pivotal
IYT (Transportation) Back above the monthly channel on the new month-still best place to watch
IBB (Biotechnology) 310 support to hold
XRT (Retail) 39.25 support and needs to retake 40.00
GLD (Gold Trust) Aside but watching over 122
SLV (Silver) 16.25 next point to clear
URA (Uranium) Subscribers: Some volume buying today
USO (US Oil Fund) Healthy pullback-Imagine digestion good over 10.80
XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) confirmed phase change to accumulation
OIH (Oil Service Holders) confirmed phase change to recovery
XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) 35.52 the 5-week MA
TAN (Solar Energy) Inside day
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 125-125.70 should be resistance now
UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.37 the 200-week MA and 24.80 resistance
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