April 14, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Market went out exactly as one would expect after an historical run up: quiet and basically unchanged. Except for Biotechnology which continues to make new highs, the other stronger sectors took a breather-Retail and Real Estate both had inside days. The Financial sector closed red, but with no real damage done, same with the Semiconductors, Transportation and Homebuilders. Gold and silver finally caved in, getting whacked hard. Oil and Energy weakened as well. Monday could well set the tone for the entire week. A couple of weeks ago, I speculated that perhaps the market is divorcing itself from the Russell 2000 and the ratio of higher rates, better market, lower rates weaker market, better gold. NASDAQ closed on new 2013 weekly highs as did the Dow and S&P 500. Therefore, a major focus for the coming week is those relationships and how they continue to line up with one another. That, and how the US dollar fares.
S&P 500 (SPY) A one day correction may not be enough to clean out some of the weaker longs. But, what will help us ascertain a correction from something far more insidious is if this can hold 156 level.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Has room to 92.00 without looking too horrible. It also will look a lot better back over 94.00
Dow (DIA) Inside day-overbought on all indicators-a key the way range breaks, especially for the other indexes
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) I like the push back to the highs that occurred at the end of Friday's session. 70.58 in its midst but it must also hold 69.25 area.
ETFs:
GLD Wow. A perfect example of following the overall trend and not getting too seduced by short term pops. Now, a bit oversold so most likely will spend some time digesting.
XLF (Financials) 18.24 is the support level, 18.48 pivotal and 19.50 the ultimate target.
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs yet again-amazingly strong.
SMH (Semiconductors) 35.00 held: the day this gets over 36.17-look out above!
XRT (Retail) Inside day on the highs.
IYT (Transportation) Although lagging on this move, still see this as a longer term trend up.
IYR (Real Estate) New highs the last 7 trading days. Overbought-yes.
USO (US Oil Fund) Gapped and crapped. Lower oil prices never a bad thing
OIH (Oil Services) Unconfirmed warning phase with some big names reporting end of this week.
XLE (Energy) Unconfirmed warning phase-sloppy chart until it breaks 80 or 76
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) So much for the island bottom. Glad we waited for the 200 weekly moving average to clear which you now need a telescope to see from here.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration). Subscribers: Out of the swing long with profit-now aside til it sets up again
XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 an area to cross and close above.
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