April 15, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Bloodbath followed by bloodshed. How does one write pithy comments after a day like today? Trying to shake off emotions and the all too familiar trauma having worked in the World Trade Center for so many years and losing many friends is not easy. But, looking at the charts, the question that plagued us about the small caps lagging, gold collapsing and interest rates dropping certainly were answered today. The Dow had the worst day of the year. From a technical standpoint, this is the making of another brick wall like the one we saw on February 25th. When that brick wall candle occurred, similar to today, the Dow was above the 50 DMA holding its bull phase. Therefore, regardless of the damage done in commodities and small caps, one must look here first for signs of leadership to the upside. If we learn from repeating patterns, an inside day tomorrow is one to be respected. If more damage is done, that too is to be respected.
S&P 500 (SPY) Here is what I wrote coming into today, "A one day correction may not be enough to clean out some of the weaker longs. But, what will help us ascertain a correction from something far more insidious is if this can hold 156 level." Something more insidious for sure. 154 is the 50 DMA-key area to watch.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke 92.00 early on and now 86.00 is where the 2013 rally began
Dow (DIA) As mentioned above, best chance to recover if can cross back over the 146.50 level. Otherwise, 142.80 the 50 DMA
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Broke 69.00 after failing a longer trend channel early on today. 68.15 is its 50 DMA
ETFs:
GLD A major liquidation the likes I haven't seen since back in the day-yes, I mean the 1980's back in the day. With big volume, we are going to look for signs of a blow off today.
XLF (Financials) Total reversal and now looking also at the 50 DMA.
IBB (Biotechnology) Like DIA, this has been the leader since 2012 and even with today's damage, is the first place one should look for strength
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.50 is a wall of support unless it cracks it tomorrow
XRT (Retail) Brick wall reversal unless today's low holds and this can show signs of strength
IYT (Transportation) Washed out longs and now, 103 next area to watch for some support
IYR (Real Estate) Brick wall reversal unless today's low holds and this can show signs of strength
USO (US Oil Fund) Made new 2013 low today
OIH (Oil Services) Right to the 200 DMA.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) On the 200 DMA.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Looks like the US dollar got some attention as a somewhat safe place to be
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