Chances Are $SPY $QQQ $IWM

October 11, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Let's review how the 3 scenarios did:
3 scenarios to watch for: 1. SPY holds the 50 DMA and breaks above 10/10 high with accumulation in volume. (Yes, no, no) 2. Ditto in DIA and/or IWM 3. (Yes, no, no) After the possible flush Tuesday in QQQ, that also clears Wednesday's high with accumulation in volume. (No, no).
Add up the yes versus no and you get 6 to 2 in favor of the no's. A technical trader would say-not such great odds a bottom was put in place Thursday. Or another way of putting it: 25% chance that a bottom was put in place on Thursday.

S&P 500 (SPY) Where does that leave this? A must move over the fast moving average or the 50 DMA (143.00) could go to warning.

Russell 2000 (IWM) A must move over the fast moving average.

Dow (DIA) Inside day. Looks vulnerable-but even if closes under the 50 DMA, the warning phase will be weak.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Pretty oversold on the 2-day RSI. See 66.30 area as support so not a good risk/reward right here on short side.

ETFs:

GLD Holding the island bottom and marginally closed at Wednesday high. Still has some more proving to do but bias friendly. SLV No more island bottom-bias-aside

XLF (Financials) Held 16.02 with some big financial institution's about to report earnings

XRT (Retail) Looking at the 50 DMA

IYR (Real Estate) Some signs of life but sadly, only against resistance

USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day

OIH (Oil Services) Boxed in a range over last 7 trading days-would follow the way that range breaks.

XLE (Energy) Hanging onto the 50 DMA but not impressively until clears the fast moving average

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs back to the 50 DMA.

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