October 13, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The Dow Jones ticks were like watching a tennis match between Venus and Serena William. We have this really cool indicator that lights up when a phase is changing. DIA flashed warning, bullish, warning, bullish, warning, finally ending with the bullish phase intact. Can't say the same for S&P 500 and Russell 2000 though. Both now in unconfirmed yet weak warning phases. And then there's NASDAQ, which entered its warning phase (also weak) last Tuesday, ending the week with oversold conditions. Big earnings coming up this week. Should shed some light.
S&P 500 (SPY) A must move over the 50 DMA (143.00) first hurdle. Second is 144.56, the fast moving average. Otherwise, if there is a confirmation of this warning phase, 141.65 is next stop.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.60 the 50 DMA to clear or we could be looking at the 200 DMA
Dow (DIA) The one bright spot remaining on the 50 DMA and closing above. IBM reports this week. Seems one should wait to see how that impacts the Dow.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Oversold on the 2-day RSI. GOOG reports this week and AAPL on the 25th.
ETFs:
GLD Began last week thinking double top at 174 in 2012. Then, there was the island bottom. No more. So, under 170 see this in defensive mode
XLF (Financials) 15.45 support as earnings get cranking
IBB (Biotechnology) 140 support
SMH (Semiconductors) Oh my poor, poor semis-they were the first ones out the door to go home and relieve the babysitter
XRT (Retail) On the 50 DMA. Would like to see it clear 62.90 for a sign of life
OIH (Oil Services) Boxed in a range over last 8 trading days-would follow the way that range breaks.
XLE (Energy) Leaving this be unless clear 73.35
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Low interest rates are signaling weak market and US dollar. Overall, not such a good scenario.
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