Clear As Muddy Water $SPY $QQQ $IWM

May 28, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


The market managed to close out the week as crystal unclear. Is it basing at important support levels? Will the recent support turn into resistance? Naturally and not unexpectedly, 3 out of 4 indices had inside days on Friday.

S&P 500 (SPY) Over 132.85 next stop 135.50 area. Under 131.40 another test of 129.55 and then perhaps the 200 DMA.

Russell 2000 (IWM) No inside day here. Under Friday low will knock some wind from this index but not necessarily deliver a fatal blow. Over 77.00, next resistance 78.25.

Dow (DIA) 125.60 has to clear as this index has been a drag on the market. 122.15 is the underlying 200 DMA

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Ended last week with 2 inside days in a row or what looks like a squeeze between 62.40 (the fast moving average) and 61.85 (an exponential moving average). It would be good to see some follow through one way or another.

ETFs:

GLD Inside day after a key hold of the end of 2011 low. Can run easily up to the 50 DMA from here if Friday's low holds.

XLF (Financials) Inside day. Watch 14.10 or the 200 DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) If this were all one was watching one would think the market has some serious legs. 124 now key support

SMH (Semiconductors) Yet another inside day.

XRT (Retail) With the declining slope of the overhead 50 DMA, I am more inclined to be on the lookout for the bear flag forming from last week's incline.

IYT (Transportation) Inside day. 91.00 pivotal area

IYR (Real Estate) Weak warning phase, inside day as next week begins with Case- Schiller Home Price Index. Ordinarily, I do not write about fundamental factors, but the market is particularly sensitive to good/bad news at these levels.

USO (US Oil Fund) Somebody pulled the plug last week on range, volume and interest at these lower levels. Won't stay like that forever.

OIH (Oil Services) If market fails, considering this is not oversold, always a good place to go for shorts

XLE (Energy) Ditto. Only over 66.45, could surprise

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT could not take out the all-time high, tested the fast moving average and ended with an inside day.

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