September 3, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
S&P 500 managed a close in the green and above 164.35 which was a resistance level coming into Tuesday, until it became a support level end of day. However, the phase remains in warning, albeit, weak warning. The market reacted with jitters to any news concerning Syria except in the world of real estate and homebuilders. Those groups are reacting more to interest rates with the debate of tapering versus no tapering by the Federal Reserve getting long in the tooth. Biotechnology cares little about war or higher rates working on its own bullish fumes, quite frankly, for nearly 3 years now. Those are the trends legends are made of! NASDAQ, the index that is the bullish phase holdout, acted like a bullish index, closing well and now above a fast moving average. With SPY and the small caps (IWM) so close to the 50 DMA, we can afford to sit and wait to see if that level clears for an improvement in phase and a new long opportunity. Otherwise, Tuesday’s low becomes the place to defend, otherwise, expect more selling to come in.
S&P 500 (SPY) 163.05 last week’s low support, 164.35 pivotal and over 165.90 brings it closer to the promised land
Russell 2000 (IWM) 102.50 is a good area to see clear for overall confidence in the market. 100.00 is now the closest support level to hold
Dow (DIA) 145 is next underlying support, then the 200 DMA. Over 149, well, that would be a game changer
Nasdaq (QQQ) 76.55 fills the gap from the drop after 8/30. That means if that level clears, the recent highs are within reach. 74.80 is the 50 DMA
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 19.78 good point to clear, then we look at the 50 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) Sitting right on a key pivotal area 37.50.
XRT (Retail) After a sweet run this year, now looking more vulnerable especially under 77.00
IYT (Transportation) Daily right now not so pretty. Longer term charts intact which gives this more room to the downside without major damage.
IBB (Biotechnology) 197 now support 198.46 next point to clear
IYR (Real Estate) Needs a turnaround soon as perhaps first real clue to what the Fed might do regarding interest rates. Getting real close to longer term support around November 2012 lows 60.84.
GLDA bit tough to gauge risk for long or short right now
USO (US Oil Fund)Inside day.
XLE (Energy) Subscribers: long term looks good although was not an easy day. Watch for more clarity tomorrow
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Not bad looking at these levels
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