Did the Economic Modern Family Really Go Anywhere?

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Here is the Economic Modern Family ringing the bell at the NYSE!

I feel like there is so much to talk about, that at the end of the day (week), the talking points matter little compared to the weekly charts of the Economic Modern Family.

With better-than-expected earnings, geopolitics, gold on new highs, debt rising, politics, and mixed economic data, the Family has remained in the trading range for months now.

First a word about long bonds TLT

After rising yields and a big drop in TLT, the trend may have reversed.

Why is this important?

TLT is a gateway to assess risk on or off in the market.

TLT continues to underperform SPY.

Real Motion (momentum) on this weekly chart shows a bullish divergence interestingly.

However, TLT is scraping along the 50-week moving average (blue).

This all means that while TLT has bounced marginally from the recent lows, the rally is more noise than a sea change.

Where does TLT get interesting?

A close and hold over 100.

Depending on where long bonds and yields go as we head closer to the election and beyond, we can see quite clearly that the members of the Family are optimistic, but not ready to jump for joy.

Beginning with Granny Retail XRT-she has been on my mind more than any of the other members.

The chart shows the weekly price activity since May. However, XRT has had a staggering 10-month trading range between $70 and $80.

The state of the consumer is in question with evidence of strength and concerns.

Nonetheless, should XRT take out the trading range and sustain the breakout, then we would consider that to be an excellent technical signal to be follow.

Granddad Russell 2000 IWM tested the highs, even made new 2024 highs earlier last week.

The good news is that IWM closed strong last week.

Although, we continue to wait for the index to clear and close over the 2024 intraday high or 228.63.

Big Brother Biotechnology, IBB, remains stuck in its weekly trading range.

Remember, the longer the range sustains, the better the move out of it tends to be. IBB gets interesting over 150.

The star of the week is Regional Banks KRE.

With the weekly close on new 52-week highs, we are encouraged by the breakout but would prefer to see a move and hold over $61 to get more bullish.

Looking at Sister Semiconductors SMH,

Considering the Taiwan Semiconductors earnings beat and Nvidia’s upgrades, SMH closed red on the week.

We have been expressing that SMH needs to stay in the game and not necessarily lead the rally. She is listening thus far.

Transportation IYT merits eyes this coming week.

First, IYT made a new all-time high.

Secondly, after making those highs, the price reversed leaving a potential topping pattern.

Let’s not forget this is still the volatile month of October.

Now, IYT should hold 69.50 if good.

Lastly, there is Bitcoin BTCUSD.

Between February 2024 to March 2024, Bitcoin made the yearly trading range thus far.

Roughly between $42k to $74k is where it traded in less than a month’s time.

$71, 285 is the highest weekly close in 2024.

This past week, we saw Bitcoin show signs of decoupling from its status as a risk asset.

Nevertheless, our newest Family member, our ‘tween,’ still must work it out and clear the top of the range.

If you put the whole family together, the lesson is this.

Bears tend to get short at the bottom of a range anticipating the price well break below.

And bulls tend to get bullish at the top of the range anticipating the price will break out.

Testing the top of a trading range, while healthy, is not the same thing as breaking out of the trading range.

Final word-I am so deeply grateful to all the media outlets who have taken the time to talk to me about the markets.

The media links to the past 2 weeks are below.

 

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here

Maggie Lake Is the Trump Trade Gathering Steam? 10-18-24

NYSE TV Mish covers the massive consolidation, gold and the need for more patience in stocks 10-18-24

Business First AM Mish takes you through the continued volatility in spite of a strong week in the market 10-18-24

Yahoo Finance Opening Bell Mish and Yahoo team discuss the small caps versus tech and they interest rates as the missing link 10-17-24

Stockpick.app Mish talks about the inflow of cash and sector rotation into Regional Banks 10-16-24

Real Vision Mish shares how to safeguard your investments and identify where to find opportunities amid the turmoil. 10-16-24

BNN Bloomberg Mish covers the importance of the retail and other sector rotations currently happening in the market 10-16-24

Podcast Geoff and Mish Mish and Geoff talk about why we can tell alot about where to invest using longer term timeframes 10-14-24

Schwab Network Mish and Nicole discuss the consumer and precious metals as key. 10-14-24

Fox Business Charles Payne The Consumer Fights Back Risks in the Market 10-11-24

CNBC Dubai Mish discusses China and the recent stimulus 10-10-24

 

Coming Up:

October 21, 28 Podcast with Geoff Bysshe

October 24 Live Coaching

October 28 Benzinga Pre Market

October 29-November 4 Vacation

November 6 BFM Radio Singapore

November 7 CNA Asia First

November 18 Yahoo Finance

December 5-7, 2024 Money Show Master Class

Weekly: Business First AM, stockpick.app

 

ETF Summary

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)

S&P 500 (SPY) 575 support 585 resistance

Russell 2000 (IWM) Cleared 225, can we see 229 clear?

Dow (DIA) 435 next? If holds 425

Nasdaq (QQQ) 485 pivotal support 500 resistance

Regional banks (KRE) 60 pivotal

Semiconductors (SMH) 242 support 265 resistance

Transportation (IYT) 69.50 support

Biotechnology (IBB) 142 support zone 146.50 resistance

Retail (XRT) 78.99 the highest monthly close since 2022-keep that in mind

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 79.50 nearest key support