Even Raul Waits for the Market to Make New Highs

October 21, 2019

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

blankThe Russell 2000, Retail and Transportation not only held up today, they also led the rally.

As noted over the weekend, “shorter-term we could still get a pop-and then it will depend on the IWM IYT and XRT’s performance.”

Just like Raul sits among the falling leaves staring at the gate waiting for something or someone exciting to visit, investors wait for the S&P 500, the Dow and NASDAQ to make new all-time highs.

Those indices continue to trade within a much larger trading range, i.e. SPY range is 285-303.

So, in the face of today’s stellar performance in our “inside the market” index and sectors, what’s stopping SPY from visiting those new all-time highs?


A big factor this week is earnings. 25% of the stocks listed in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report this week.

If I were the SPY and were going to pause right near the ATHs, this would be the week to do it.

After all, Raul can easily open the gate, but the fear of the unknown stops him from doing so.

On the charts, you can easily see that the Russell’s (IWM) have cleared the 50-WMA (blue) but remain well below the highs from 2018.

SPY and NASDAQ are ever so close.

The Dow, hit with Boeing troubles, looks better than the IWM, but only marginally.

Rarely have I seen the market get so quiet at such a huge inflection point.

Nonetheless, that in of itself is telling.

Raul waits and waits for someone to come through that gate.

However, it must be the right someone.

The wrong someone can just as easily make him cower.

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S&P 500 (SPY) 296 pivotal support. 300 now must hold

Russell 2000 (IWM) 153.50 now the pivotal support

Dow (DIA) 270 now pivotal resistance

Nasdaq (QQQ) 193.50 pivotal. 194.71 higher resistance. 190.45 key support.

KRE (Regional Banks) 53.65 now needs to hold

SMH (Semiconductors) 121.80 support and new ATHs is at 125.38

IYT (Transportation) 190 now the pivotal support

IBB (Biotechnology) 102.50 important pivotal point. 105 resistance

XRT (Retail) 43-44 huge resistance. 41.50 support

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