August 27, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Tonight’s evening watch was prepared by Geoff Bysshe, President, MarketGauge.
It was another day of the market drifting. The volume in the SPY was lower today than pre-holiday trading on July 3rd, and we’re still 2 days away from the the the Labor Day holiday weekend. I suspect the next two days will be more of the same “wait for September” drifting action in the SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM. I can’t promise the lack of volatility will end next Tuesday, but I’d bet it will be over soon thereafter.
Despite the lack of movement in our U.S. stock indexes, there have been some interesting moves worthy of your attention in EEM, TLT, and IFN which you can read about below.
S&P 500 (SPY) - More consolidation. Key support levels are 199.70 and 199.
Russell 2000 (IWM) - Tight consolidation after a big breakout day. 117.40-.50 will likely be resistance.
Dow (DIA) - Consolidation day, watch today's low.
Nasdaq (QQQ) -Very tight consolidation.
XLF (Financials) - Inside day. Still waiting for a pull back to 23
KRE (Regional Banks) - Big resistance at 39.30 including the 200 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) - Broke 3 day low and closed near high of the day. Was that the test?
IYT (Transportation) - Has 6 days of consolidation. 152.40 is the number it needs to breakout of on the upside. If it slides under yesterday's low, look for major support at 149
IBB (Biotechnology) - Paused after 2 big up days. The 2014 highs are at 275.40. Looking for a pullback to support in the area of 270 to 268.60.
XRT (Retail) - Followed through on its breakout over the 2013 highs at 89.
IYR (Real Estate) - Another tight consolidation day on the 10 DMA, and sitting on a good support from 73.50-.30. I'll be look at this one closely tomorrow.
ITB (US Home Construction) - A tight 6 day range on the 200 DMA. 23.75 is the key low level to hold.
GLD (Gold) -Tight consolidation. 124 is the level to break on the upside. 123-122 levels are good support.
XME (Metals and Mining) - Very nice inside day. 44.05 is big number. Looks like it wants to go higher and the weekly picture is still explosive.
USO (US Oil Fund) - 6 days of consolidation. It's ready to move. I'll focus on the long side. If you look at weekly lows there is another trend line from the 2012 lows that comes in at 34. Based on last week's daily action it time to start looking at last week's 34.50 area as potentially a low risk trade to pick a major low.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) - Not surprisingly, pulled back from the 50 DMA. Should hold above 76.60.
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) - Confirmed accumulation phase and consolidating under the 20.90 - 21.00 level which is the important level to break.
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) - Pulled back and stopped near the 10 DMA. The bigger support is at 43.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) - TLT - In the last week this has rallied from 116 to the highs created by news of fighting in the Ukraine, 118.36. This is acting like a strong bull phase.
UUP (Dollar Bull) - Pull back day from the 22 level that is probably going to be hard to break. I'll be interested when it pulls back to 21.80. The weekly base is very impressive.
EEM (Emerging Markets) - Followed through on a big weekly breakout, a pull back would be a nice opportunity. Key levels of support are 45 and 44.50.
IFN (India Fund Inc.) - Finally broke 26 and closed on the high of the day.
EWW (Mexico) - Inside day. But 71 is the support I'd focus on.
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) - Pulled back under the 10 DMA. Stuck in a range 40.65 - 41.58
CORN (Corn) - Sitting near the low end of consolidation range
JO (Coffee) Followed through on yesterday's breakout but the open was the high of the day. 38 was a pivotal area today
Bye for Now!
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